Opinion Poll by Research Partner for Ariadna, 8–11 November 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 32.3% 30.5–34.2% 30.0–34.7% 29.6–35.2% 28.7–36.1%
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 32.1% 30.3–34.0% 29.8–34.5% 29.4–35.0% 28.6–35.9%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 7.9% 6.9–9.0% 6.6–9.3% 6.4–9.6% 6.0–10.2%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 5.4% 4.6–6.4% 4.4–6.6% 4.2–6.9% 3.8–7.4%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.2% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.0%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 4.4% 3.7–5.4% 3.5–5.6% 3.4–5.9% 3.0–6.3%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 3.7% 3.1–4.6% 2.9–4.8% 2.7–5.0% 2.5–5.5%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 2.5% 2.0–3.2% 1.8–3.4% 1.7–3.6% 1.5–4.0%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.8% 1.3–2.4% 1.2–2.6% 1.1–2.7% 1.0–3.1%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.4–1.5% 0.3–1.7%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.4–1.5% 0.3–1.7%
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.2–1.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 18 17–19 16–19 16–19 16–20
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 19 18–20 18–21 17–21 17–21
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 3 3–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 3 2–3 2–4 2–4 2–4
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 1–4
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 2 2 1–3 1–3 1–3
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.2% 100%  
16 9% 99.8%  
17 26% 90%  
18 49% 64% Median
19 13% 15%  
20 2% 2%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.1% 100%  
17 4% 99.9%  
18 26% 96%  
19 47% 70% Median
20 17% 23%  
21 6% 6%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 21% 100%  
4 67% 79% Median
5 13% 13%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 6% 100%  
3 66% 94% Median
4 28% 28%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.1% 100%  
2 24% 99.9%  
3 70% 76% Median
4 6% 6%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 1.2% 100%  
2 54% 98.8% Median
3 44% 45%  
4 0.7% 0.7%  
5 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 5% 100%  
2 88% 95% Median
3 7% 7%  
4 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.5% 100% Last Result
1 72% 99.5% Median
2 28% 28%  
3 0% 0%  

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 40% 100% Last Result
1 59% 60% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.4% 1.4%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.5% 0.5%  
2 0% 0%  

Centrum dla Polski (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centrum dla Polski (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 0.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 3 0% 2–3 2–4 2–4 2–4
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 2 0% 2 1–3 1–3 1–3
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–1

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.1% 100%  
2 24% 99.9%  
3 70% 76% Median
4 6% 6%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 5% 100%  
2 88% 95% Median
3 7% 7%  
4 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.4% 1.4%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations