Opinion Poll by United Surveys for WP.pl, 22–24 November 2024
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) | 0.0% | 32.8% | 30.9–34.8% | 30.4–35.3% | 29.9–35.8% | 29.1–36.7% |
| Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) | 0.0% | 32.5% | 30.6–34.4% | 30.1–35.0% | 29.7–35.5% | 28.8–36.4% |
| Nowa Lewica (S&D) | 0.0% | 9.3% | 8.2–10.6% | 7.9–10.9% | 7.7–11.3% | 7.2–11.9% |
| Polska 2050 (RE) | 0.0% | 5.5% | 4.7–6.5% | 4.4–6.8% | 4.3–7.1% | 3.9–7.6% |
| Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) | 0.0% | 5.2% | 4.4–6.2% | 4.2–6.5% | 4.0–6.8% | 3.6–7.3% |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) | 0.0% | 4.6% | 3.9–5.6% | 3.6–5.9% | 3.5–6.1% | 3.1–6.6% |
| Ruch Narodowy (PfE) | 0.0% | 3.8% | 3.1–4.7% | 2.9–5.0% | 2.8–5.2% | 2.5–5.6% |
| Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) | 0.0% | 2.5% | 2.0–3.3% | 1.8–3.5% | 1.7–3.7% | 1.5–4.1% |
| .Nowoczesna (RE) | 0.0% | 1.8% | 1.4–2.5% | 1.2–2.7% | 1.1–2.8% | 1.0–3.2% |
| Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.5–1.2% | 0.4–1.3% | 0.3–1.4% | 0.2–1.7% |
| Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.5–1.2% | 0.4–1.3% | 0.3–1.4% | 0.2–1.7% |
| Centrum dla Polski (*) | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.3–0.9% | 0.3–1.1% | 0.2–1.2% | 0.2–1.4% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) | 0 | 19 | 17–19 | 16–19 | 16–19 | 16–20 |
| Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) | 0 | 17 | 17–19 | 17–20 | 17–20 | 17–21 |
| Nowa Lewica (S&D) | 0 | 5 | 4–5 | 4–5 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Polska 2050 (RE) | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Ruch Narodowy (PfE) | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| .Nowoczesna (RE) | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Centrum dla Polski (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 16 | 6% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 19% | 94% | |
| 18 | 9% | 75% | |
| 19 | 65% | 66% | Median |
| 20 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 21 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 0.3% | 100% | |
| 17 | 66% | 99.7% | Median |
| 18 | 13% | 34% | |
| 19 | 13% | 21% | |
| 20 | 6% | 8% | |
| 21 | 2% | 2% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Nowa Lewica (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 12% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 85% | 88% | Median |
| 6 | 3% | 3% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Polska 2050 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 4% | 100% | |
| 3 | 87% | 96% | Median |
| 4 | 9% | 9% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 6% | 100% | |
| 3 | 93% | 94% | Median |
| 4 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0.2% | 100% | |
| 2 | 89% | 99.8% | Median |
| 3 | 11% | 11% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Ruch Narodowy (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 5% | 100% | |
| 2 | 87% | 95% | Median |
| 3 | 8% | 8% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.2% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 96% | 99.8% | Median |
| 2 | 4% | 4% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
.Nowoczesna (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 93% | 93% | Median |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Centrum dla Polski (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centrum dla Polski (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 |
| Ruch Narodowy (PfE) | 0 | 2 | 0% | 2 | 2–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 6% | 100% | |
| 3 | 93% | 94% | Median |
| 4 | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Ruch Narodowy (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 5% | 100% | |
| 2 | 87% | 95% | Median |
| 3 | 8% | 8% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.8% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: United Surveys
- Commissioner(s): WP.pl
- Fieldwork period: 22–24 November 2024
Calculations
- Sample size: 1000
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 3.35%