Opinion Poll by Instytut Badań Pollster for Super Express, 25–26 November 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 30.4% 28.6–32.3% 28.1–32.9% 27.7–33.3% 26.8–34.3%
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 30.0% 28.2–31.8% 27.6–32.4% 27.2–32.8% 26.4–33.8%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 8.2% 7.2–9.4% 6.9–9.7% 6.6–10.0% 6.2–10.6%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 5.9% 5.1–7.0% 4.8–7.3% 4.6–7.5% 4.2–8.1%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 4.7% 4.0–5.7% 3.8–6.0% 3.6–6.2% 3.2–6.7%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 4.3% 3.6–5.3% 3.4–5.5% 3.2–5.8% 2.9–6.3%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 3.9% 3.3–4.8% 3.1–5.1% 2.9–5.3% 2.6–5.8%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 2.9% 2.3–3.7% 2.1–3.9% 2.0–4.1% 1.8–4.5%
Bezpartyjni Samorządowcy (*) 0.0% 2.4% 1.9–3.1% 1.7–3.3% 1.6–3.5% 1.4–3.9%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.7% 1.2–2.3% 1.1–2.5% 1.1–2.7% 0.9–3.0%
Polska Jest Jedna (*) 0.0% 1.6% 1.2–2.2% 1.1–2.4% 1.0–2.5% 0.8–2.9%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.1% 0.8–1.6% 0.7–1.8% 0.6–1.9% 0.5–2.2%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–0.9% 0.2–1.0% 0.2–1.2% 0.1–1.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 18 16–18 16–19 16–19 15–20
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 17 17–19 17–19 17–20 16–20
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 4 4–5 3–5 3–5 3–6
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 3 3–4 3–4 2–5 2–5
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 3 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 2 2–3 2–4 2–4 1–4
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 2 2–3 1–3 1–3 1–3
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
Bezpartyjni Samorządowcy (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Polska Jest Jedna (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.6% 100%  
16 12% 99.4%  
17 12% 87%  
18 69% 75% Median
19 4% 5%  
20 1.1% 1.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.1% 100%  
16 1.0% 99.9%  
17 52% 98.9% Median
18 33% 47%  
19 10% 15%  
20 5% 5%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 8% 100%  
4 64% 92% Median
5 26% 28%  
6 2% 2%  
7 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 3% 100%  
3 51% 97% Median
4 44% 46%  
5 3% 3%  
6 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 20% 100%  
3 54% 80% Median
4 26% 26%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.9% 100%  
2 60% 99.1% Median
3 33% 39%  
4 6% 6%  
5 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 6% 100%  
2 68% 94% Median
3 26% 27%  
4 0.4% 0.4%  
5 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 42% 100%  
2 58% 58% Median
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Bezpartyjni Samorządowcy (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bezpartyjni Samorządowcy (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 38% 100% Last Result
1 62% 62% Median
2 0.4% 0.4%  
3 0% 0%  

Polska Jest Jedna (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska Jest Jedna (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.5% 0.5%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 95% 100% Last Result, Median
1 5% 5%  
2 0% 0%  

Centrum dla Polski (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centrum dla Polski (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.3% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.7% 0.7%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 3 0% 3–4 3–4 2–5 2–5
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 2 0% 2–3 2–4 2–4 1–4
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 3% 100%  
3 51% 97% Median
4 44% 46%  
5 3% 3%  
6 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.9% 100%  
2 60% 99.1% Median
3 33% 39%  
4 6% 6%  
5 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.5% 0.5%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations