Opinion Poll by IBRiS for Rzeczpospolita, 6–7 December 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 37.2% 35.3–39.1% 34.8–39.7% 34.4–40.2% 33.5–41.1%
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 33.6% 31.8–35.5% 31.2–36.0% 30.8–36.5% 29.9–37.4%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 7.9% 7.0–9.1% 6.7–9.4% 6.4–9.7% 6.0–10.3%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 4.8% 4.0–5.7% 3.8–6.0% 3.6–6.2% 3.3–6.7%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 3.9% 3.2–4.8% 3.1–5.0% 2.9–5.3% 2.6–5.7%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 3.5% 2.9–4.4% 2.7–4.6% 2.6–4.8% 2.3–5.3%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 2.6% 2.1–3.4% 1.9–3.6% 1.8–3.7% 1.6–4.1%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.9% 1.4–2.5% 1.3–2.7% 1.2–2.9% 1.0–3.2%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 1.7% 1.3–2.3% 1.2–2.5% 1.1–2.7% 0.9–3.0%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 0.9% 0.6–1.4% 0.6–1.6% 0.5–1.7% 0.4–2.0%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.4–1.5% 0.3–1.7%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.4–1.5% 0.3–1.7%
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–0.9% 0.2–1.0% 0.2–1.1% 0.1–1.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 21 20–21 20–21 20–21 19–22
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 18 18–21 18–21 18–21 18–21
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 4 4 4 4 3–4
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 3 3 3 3 2–3
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 2 2 2 2 1–3
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 2 2 2 2 1–3
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 1 1 1 1 1–2
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0.1% 100%  
19 0.5% 99.9%  
20 22% 99.4%  
21 77% 78% Median
22 0.5% 0.5%  
23 0% 0%  

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0.1% 100%  
18 78% 99.9% Median
19 2% 22%  
20 0.8% 21%  
21 20% 20%  
22 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.6% 100%  
4 99.0% 99.4% Median
5 0.4% 0.4%  
6 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 1.4% 100%  
3 98% 98.6% Median
4 0.3% 0.3%  
5 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 1.3% 100%  
2 98% 98.7% Median
3 0.7% 0.7%  
4 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.5% 100%  
2 98% 99.5% Median
3 2% 2%  
4 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 98% 100% Median
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 20% 100% Last Result
1 80% 80% Median
2 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 21% 100% Last Result
1 79% 79% Median
2 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 0.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Centrum dla Polski (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centrum dla Polski (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 2 0% 2 2 2 1–3
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 1 0% 1 1 1 1–2
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.5% 100%  
2 98% 99.5% Median
3 2% 2%  
4 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 98% 100% Median
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations