Opinion Poll by United Surveys for WP.pl, 20–22 December 2024

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 32.0% 30.1–34.1% 29.5–34.7% 29.0–35.2% 28.1–36.2%
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 30.8% 28.9–32.8% 28.3–33.4% 27.8–33.9% 26.9–34.9%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 10.1% 8.9–11.5% 8.6–11.9% 8.3–12.3% 7.8–13.0%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 6.1% 5.2–7.2% 4.9–7.5% 4.7–7.8% 4.3–8.4%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 5.1% 4.2–6.1% 4.0–6.4% 3.8–6.7% 3.4–7.3%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 5.1% 4.2–6.1% 4.0–6.4% 3.8–6.7% 3.4–7.3%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 3.7% 3.0–4.7% 2.8–4.9% 2.7–5.2% 2.3–5.7%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 2.5% 1.9–3.3% 1.8–3.5% 1.6–3.7% 1.4–4.1%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.8% 1.3–2.5% 1.2–2.7% 1.1–2.9% 0.9–3.3%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.5% 0.2–1.8%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.5% 0.2–1.8%
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.2–1.3% 0.2–1.6%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 0.3% 0.2–0.8% 0.2–0.9% 0.1–1.0% 0.1–1.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 20 18–20 18–20 17–20 16–20
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 15 15–17 15–18 15–18 14–18
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 5 5 4–6 4–6 4–6
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 3 3 3–4 3–4 2–4
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 3 3 2–3 2–4 2–4
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 3 3 2–3 2–3 2–4
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 2 2 2 1–2 1–3
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 1 1 1 1 1–2
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 1 1 1 0–1 0–1
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.5% 100%  
17 2% 99.4%  
18 12% 97%  
19 5% 86%  
20 81% 81% Median
21 0.1% 0.2%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.6% 100%  
15 80% 99.4% Median
16 6% 19%  
17 4% 13%  
18 9% 9%  
19 0.3% 0.3%  
20 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 6% 100%  
5 86% 94% Median
6 8% 8%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.9% 100%  
3 92% 99.1% Median
4 7% 7%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 8% 100%  
3 89% 91% Median
4 3% 3%  
5 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 5% 100%  
3 93% 95% Median
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 4% 100%  
2 95% 96% Median
3 1.2% 1.2%  
4 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100% Last Result
1 98% 99.6% Median
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100% Last Result
1 95% 96% Median
2 0.4% 0.4%  
3 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 0.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Centrum dla Polski (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centrum dla Polski (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.4% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.6% 0.6%  
2 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 3 0% 3 2–3 2–3 2–4
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 2 0% 2 2 1–2 1–3
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 5% 100%  
3 93% 95% Median
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 4% 100%  
2 95% 96% Median
3 1.2% 1.2%  
4 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations