Opinion Poll by Opinia24 for RMF FM, 7–9 January 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 33.1% 31.2–35.1% 30.6–35.7% 30.2–36.2% 29.2–37.2%
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 31.3% 29.4–33.3% 28.8–33.9% 28.4–34.4% 27.5–35.3%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 6.6% 5.6–7.7% 5.4–8.1% 5.2–8.4% 4.7–9.0%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 6.0% 5.1–7.2% 4.9–7.5% 4.7–7.8% 4.3–8.4%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 4.9% 4.1–5.9% 3.8–6.2% 3.6–6.4% 3.3–7.0%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 4.9% 4.1–5.9% 3.8–6.2% 3.6–6.4% 3.3–7.0%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–5.0% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.5% 2.6–6.0%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 3.2% 2.6–4.1% 2.4–4.4% 2.3–4.6% 2.0–5.0%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.2% 1.7–2.9% 1.5–3.1% 1.4–3.3% 1.2–3.7%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.7% 1.3–2.4% 1.2–2.6% 1.1–2.8% 0.9–3.2%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0.0% 0.4% 0.3–0.9% 0.2–1.0% 0.2–1.1% 0.1–1.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 18 17–20 17–20 17–20 16–21
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 18 17–20 17–21 17–21 16–21
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 2–5
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 3 0–3 0–4 0–4 0–4
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 3 2–3 2–4 2–4 2–4
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–4 2–4
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 1–3
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–3 1–3
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.1% 100%  
16 2% 99.9%  
17 29% 98%  
18 30% 68% Median
19 24% 38%  
20 13% 14%  
21 1.4% 1.5%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.5% 100%  
16 0.7% 99.5%  
17 17% 98.9%  
18 35% 82% Median
19 33% 47%  
20 9% 14%  
21 5% 5%  
22 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.8% 100%  
3 16% 99.2%  
4 63% 83% Median
5 20% 21%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 12% 100% Last Result
1 0% 88%  
2 6% 88%  
3 76% 82% Median
4 6% 6%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 39% 100%  
3 56% 61% Median
4 5% 5%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.4% 100%  
2 56% 99.6% Median
3 40% 43%  
4 3% 3%  
5 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 1.2% 100%  
2 69% 98.8% Median
3 29% 30%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 29% 100%  
2 68% 71% Median
3 3% 3%  
4 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 51% 100% Last Result, Median
1 48% 49%  
2 0.4% 0.4%  
3 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.3% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.7% 0.7%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 0.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Centrum dla Polski (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centrum dla Polski (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 4 0% 3–5 3–5 3–5 2–5
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 2 0% 2–3 2–3 2–4 2–4
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–1

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.8% 100%  
3 16% 99.2%  
4 63% 83% Median
5 20% 21%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.4% 100%  
2 56% 99.6% Median
3 40% 43%  
4 3% 3%  
5 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.3% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.7% 0.7%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations