Opinion Poll by IBRiS for Rzeczpospolita, 10–11 January 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 35.6% 33.7–37.6% 33.2–38.2% 32.7–38.7% 31.8–39.6%
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 29.8% 28.0–31.7% 27.5–32.3% 27.0–32.7% 26.2–33.7%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 6.7% 5.8–7.9% 5.6–8.2% 5.3–8.5% 4.9–9.1%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 6.0% 5.2–7.1% 4.9–7.4% 4.7–7.7% 4.3–8.3%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 5.0% 4.2–6.1% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.6% 3.5–7.1%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 4.4% 3.7–5.4% 3.5–5.7% 3.3–5.9% 3.0–6.4%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 4.1% 3.4–5.1% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.6% 2.7–6.0%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 2.9% 2.3–3.7% 2.2–4.0% 2.0–4.2% 1.8–4.6%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.6% 1.2–2.3% 1.1–2.4% 1.0–2.6% 0.8–3.0%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.4% 1.0–2.0% 0.9–2.2% 0.8–2.4% 0.7–2.7%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.3–1.7%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.3–1.7%
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–0.9% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.2% 0.2–1.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 20 19–21 19–21 18–21 18–21
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 16 16–19 15–19 15–19 15–19
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–5
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 3 3 2–3 2–3 2–4
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 1–3
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 1 1 1–2 1–2 1–2
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0.4% 100%  
18 4% 99.6%  
19 26% 96%  
20 58% 70% Median
21 11% 12%  
22 0.3% 0.3%  
23 0% 0%  

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 7% 100%  
16 59% 93% Median
17 13% 34%  
18 8% 20%  
19 12% 13%  
20 0.2% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0.2% 99.9%  
3 65% 99.7% Median
4 34% 34%  
5 0.4% 0.4%  
6 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.3% 100%  
3 78% 99.7% Median
4 21% 22%  
5 1.1% 1.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 8% 100%  
3 91% 92% Median
4 1.4% 1.4%  
5 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.2% 100%  
2 36% 99.8%  
3 63% 64% Median
4 0.3% 0.3%  
5 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.8% 100%  
2 38% 99.2%  
3 61% 61% Median
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 92% 99.9% Median
2 8% 8%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 21% 100% Last Result
1 79% 79% Median
2 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.4% 0.4%  
2 0% 0%  

Centrum dla Polski (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centrum dla Polski (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 3 0% 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–5
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 0% 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.3% 100%  
3 78% 99.7% Median
4 21% 22%  
5 1.1% 1.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.2% 100%  
2 36% 99.8%  
3 63% 64% Median
4 0.3% 0.3%  
5 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations