Opinion Poll by United Surveys for WP.pl, 10–12 January 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 34.4% 32.4–36.4% 31.9–36.9% 31.4–37.4% 30.5–38.4%
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 28.1% 26.3–30.1% 25.8–30.6% 25.3–31.1% 24.5–32.0%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 7.6% 6.6–8.8% 6.3–9.2% 6.1–9.5% 5.6–10.1%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 6.4% 5.5–7.6% 5.3–7.9% 5.0–8.2% 4.6–8.8%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 3.9–6.3% 3.7–6.6% 3.4–7.1%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 4.8% 4.0–5.8% 3.7–6.1% 3.6–6.3% 3.2–6.8%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 4.1% 3.4–5.1% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.6% 2.7–6.1%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 3.2% 2.5–4.0% 2.4–4.3% 2.2–4.5% 2.0–5.0%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.3% 1.8–3.1% 1.7–3.3% 1.5–3.5% 1.3–3.9%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.6% 1.2–2.3% 1.1–2.4% 1.0–2.6% 0.8–3.0%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.6%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.6%
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.2% 0.2–1.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 19 18–20 17–20 17–21 17–22
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 16 16–18 16–18 15–18 14–19
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 3 3–4 3–5 3–5 2–5
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–4 2–4
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–4 2–4
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 1–3
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.1% 100%  
17 8% 99.9%  
18 38% 92%  
19 34% 54% Median
20 16% 20%  
21 3% 4%  
22 1.4% 1.4%  
23 0% 0%  

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.8% 100%  
15 4% 99.2%  
16 50% 95% Median
17 32% 45%  
18 12% 13%  
19 0.8% 0.9%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 16% 100%  
4 72% 84% Median
5 13% 13%  
6 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.7% 100%  
3 67% 99.3% Median
4 25% 33%  
5 8% 8%  
6 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 19% 100%  
3 76% 81% Median
4 4% 5%  
5 0.4% 0.4%  
6 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.4% 100%  
2 28% 99.6%  
3 68% 72% Median
4 3% 3%  
5 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 1.3% 100%  
2 45% 98.7%  
3 53% 54% Median
4 0.4% 0.4%  
5 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 40% 100%  
2 59% 60% Median
3 0.9% 0.9%  
4 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 38% 100% Last Result
1 62% 62% Median
2 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Centrum dla Polski (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centrum dla Polski (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 3 0% 3–4 3–5 3–5 2–5
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 0% 2–3 2–3 2–4 2–4
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.7% 100%  
3 67% 99.3% Median
4 25% 33%  
5 8% 8%  
6 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.4% 100%  
2 28% 99.6%  
3 68% 72% Median
4 3% 3%  
5 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations