Opinion Poll by Ipsos for TVP, 14–16 January 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 31.5% 29.6–33.5% 29.1–34.1% 28.6–34.6% 27.7–35.6%
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 28.7% 26.8–30.7% 26.3–31.2% 25.9–31.7% 25.0–32.7%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 7.6% 6.6–8.9% 6.3–9.2% 6.1–9.5% 5.6–10.1%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 5.9% 5.0–7.0% 4.7–7.3% 4.5–7.6% 4.1–8.2%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 5.7% 4.8–6.8% 4.5–7.1% 4.3–7.3% 3.9–7.9%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 4.7% 3.9–5.7% 3.7–6.0% 3.5–6.2% 3.1–6.8%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 4.3% 3.6–5.3% 3.4–5.6% 3.2–5.9% 2.9–6.4%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.3% 2.6–4.1% 2.4–4.4% 2.3–4.6% 2.0–5.1%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 2.8% 2.2–3.7% 2.1–3.9% 1.9–4.1% 1.7–4.6%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.6% 1.2–2.3% 1.1–2.5% 1.0–2.7% 0.8–3.0%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.3% 0.2–1.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 17 16–19 16–20 16–20 16–20
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 17 16–18 16–19 16–19 15–20
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 3 3–4 3–4 2–4 2–5
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 3 3–4 2–4 2–4 2–5
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 3 2–3 2–4 2–4 2–4
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 2 2–3 2–3 1–4 1–4
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.5% 100%  
16 21% 99.5%  
17 30% 78% Median
18 23% 48%  
19 18% 25%  
20 7% 7%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.1% 100%  
15 2% 99.9%  
16 12% 98%  
17 35% 85% Median
18 41% 50%  
19 7% 8%  
20 1.0% 1.1%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 25% 100%  
4 60% 75% Median
5 15% 15%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 3% 100%  
3 58% 97% Median
4 37% 39%  
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 6% 100%  
3 47% 94% Median
4 46% 47%  
5 0.6% 0.7%  
6 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.2% 100%  
2 35% 99.8%  
3 58% 65% Median
4 7% 7%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 3% 100%  
2 52% 97% Median
3 42% 45%  
4 3% 3%  
5 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.5%  
2 0.2% 0.5%  
3 0.3% 0.3%  
4 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 49% 99.8%  
2 50% 51% Median
3 0.7% 0.7%  
4 0% 0%  

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 45% 100% Last Result
1 54% 55% Median
2 0.6% 0.6%  
3 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.3% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.7% 0.7%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 3% 3%  
2 0% 0%  

Centrum dla Polski (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centrum dla Polski (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.0% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.0% 1.0%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 3 0% 3–4 3–4 2–4 2–5
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 2 0% 2–3 2–3 1–4 1–4
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–1

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 3% 100%  
3 58% 97% Median
4 37% 39%  
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 3% 100%  
2 52% 97% Median
3 42% 45%  
4 3% 3%  
5 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.5%  
2 0.2% 0.5%  
3 0.3% 0.3%  
4 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.3% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.7% 0.7%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations