Opinion Poll by Research Partner for Ariadna, 24–27 January 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 33.7% 31.8–35.7% 31.2–36.2% 30.8–36.7% 29.9–37.7%
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 29.0% 27.1–30.9% 26.6–31.4% 26.2–31.9% 25.3–32.8%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 7.7% 6.7–8.9% 6.4–9.2% 6.2–9.5% 5.7–10.1%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 6.4% 5.5–7.6% 5.3–7.9% 5.1–8.2% 4.7–8.7%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.6% 3.5–7.1%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 4.8% 4.0–5.8% 3.8–6.1% 3.6–6.3% 3.3–6.9%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 4.2% 3.5–5.2% 3.3–5.4% 3.1–5.7% 2.8–6.1%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 3.2% 2.6–4.0% 2.4–4.3% 2.2–4.5% 2.0–4.9%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.6% 1.2–2.3% 1.1–2.5% 1.0–2.7% 0.8–3.0%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.2% 0.2–1.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 19 17–20 17–20 17–20 16–21
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 17 16–18 16–19 16–19 15–19
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 4 3–4 3–5 3–5 2–5
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 3 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 2 2–3 2–4 2–4 2–4
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 2 2–3 1–3 1–3 1–4
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.9% 100%  
17 13% 99.1%  
18 35% 86%  
19 37% 51% Median
20 12% 13%  
21 1.2% 1.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.3% 100%  
15 2% 99.7%  
16 11% 98%  
17 43% 87% Median
18 37% 44%  
19 6% 7%  
20 0.4% 0.4%  
21 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0.1% 99.9%  
3 15% 99.8%  
4 73% 85% Median
5 12% 12%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 1.0% 100%  
3 48% 99.0%  
4 46% 51% Median
5 5% 5%  
6 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 22% 100%  
3 62% 78% Median
4 16% 16%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.4% 100%  
2 58% 99.6% Median
3 36% 41%  
4 5% 5%  
5 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 7% 100%  
2 78% 93% Median
3 15% 15%  
4 0.5% 0.5%  
5 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 31% 100%  
2 68% 69% Median
3 0.7% 0.7%  
4 0% 0%  

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 58% 100% Last Result, Median
1 41% 42%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 0.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.4% 0.4%  
2 0% 0%  

Centrum dla Polski (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centrum dla Polski (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.4% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.6% 0.6%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 4 0% 3–4 3–5 3–5 2–5
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 2 0% 2–3 2–4 2–4 2–4
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 1.0% 100%  
3 48% 99.0%  
4 46% 51% Median
5 5% 5%  
6 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.4% 100%  
2 58% 99.6% Median
3 36% 41%  
4 5% 5%  
5 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 0.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations