Opinion Poll by Opinia24 for Radio ZET, 23–29 January 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 31.6% 29.7–33.7% 29.2–34.2% 28.7–34.7% 27.8–35.7%
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 31.5% 29.6–33.5% 29.1–34.1% 28.6–34.6% 27.7–35.6%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 7.9% 6.8–9.1% 6.5–9.5% 6.3–9.8% 5.8–10.4%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 6.6% 5.6–7.7% 5.4–8.1% 5.1–8.4% 4.7–8.9%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 5.7% 4.8–6.8% 4.6–7.1% 4.4–7.4% 4.0–8.0%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 2.9–5.5% 2.6–5.9%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 3.9% 3.2–4.8% 3.0–5.1% 2.8–5.3% 2.5–5.8%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 3.2% 2.6–4.1% 2.4–4.4% 2.3–4.6% 2.0–5.0%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.7% 1.3–2.4% 1.2–2.6% 1.1–2.8% 0.9–3.2%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.1% 0.7–1.7% 0.7–1.8% 0.6–2.0% 0.5–2.3%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0.0% 0.4% 0.3–0.9% 0.2–1.0% 0.2–1.1% 0.1–1.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 18 18–20 17–20 17–20 16–21
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 18 16–19 16–19 16–19 15–20
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 5 4–5 4–5 3–6 3–6
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 3 3–4 2–4 0–4 0–4
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 3–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 2 2–3 1–3 1–3 1–3
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 2 2 1–3 1–3 1–3
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 2 1–2 1–3 1–3 1–3
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.1% 100%  
16 1.2% 99.9%  
17 6% 98.7%  
18 67% 93% Median
19 13% 26%  
20 12% 13%  
21 0.9% 1.0%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.1% 100%  
15 1.1% 99.9%  
16 10% 98.8%  
17 18% 89%  
18 56% 71% Median
19 13% 15%  
20 1.4% 1.4%  
21 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 3% 100%  
4 30% 97%  
5 64% 67% Median
6 3% 3%  
7 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100% Last Result
1 0% 95%  
2 1.2% 95%  
3 80% 94% Median
4 13% 14%  
5 0.4% 0.4%  
6 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 8% 100%  
3 75% 92% Median
4 16% 17%  
5 0.5% 0.5%  
6 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 7% 100%  
2 82% 93% Median
3 11% 11%  
4 0.4% 0.4%  
5 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 6% 100%  
2 87% 94% Median
3 7% 7%  
4 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 26% 100%  
2 69% 74% Median
3 6% 6%  
4 0% 0%  

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 68% 100% Last Result, Median
1 32% 32%  
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.0% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.0% 1.0%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.4% 0.4%  
2 0% 0%  

Centrum dla Polski (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centrum dla Polski (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.4% 0.4%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–5 3–6 3–6
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 0% 3–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–1

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 3% 100%  
4 30% 97%  
5 64% 67% Median
6 3% 3%  
7 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 8% 100%  
3 75% 92% Median
4 16% 17%  
5 0.5% 0.5%  
6 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.0% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.0% 1.0%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations