Opinion Poll by IBRiS for Rzeczpospolita, 7–8 February 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 32.0% 30.1–33.9% 29.6–34.4% 29.2–34.9% 28.3–35.8%
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 30.8% 29.0–32.7% 28.5–33.2% 28.0–33.7% 27.2–34.6%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 8.8% 7.7–10.0% 7.4–10.3% 7.2–10.7% 6.7–11.3%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 5.5% 4.7–6.5% 4.5–6.8% 4.3–7.1% 3.9–7.6%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 5.5% 4.7–6.5% 4.5–6.8% 4.3–7.1% 3.9–7.6%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 4.5% 3.8–5.5% 3.6–5.7% 3.4–6.0% 3.1–6.5%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–4.9% 3.1–5.2% 3.0–5.4% 2.7–5.9%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 2.7% 2.1–3.4% 2.0–3.6% 1.8–3.8% 1.6–4.3%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.8% 1.3–2.4% 1.2–2.6% 1.1–2.8% 0.9–3.1%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.6% 1.2–2.2% 1.1–2.4% 1.0–2.5% 0.8–2.9%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–0.9% 0.2–1.0% 0.2–1.1% 0.1–1.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 19 18–20 18–20 17–21 17–21
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 16 15–18 15–19 14–19 14–19
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 5 4–5 4–5 4–6 3–6
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 3 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–5
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 3 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–5
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 3 2–3 2–4 1–4 1–4
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 2 2–3 1–3 1–3 1–3
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 1 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.2% 100%  
17 4% 99.8%  
18 35% 96%  
19 40% 61% Median
20 17% 20%  
21 3% 3%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 3% 100%  
15 8% 97%  
16 41% 89% Median
17 24% 48%  
18 17% 24%  
19 7% 7%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 2% 100%  
4 47% 98%  
5 46% 51% Median
6 4% 4%  
7 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 15% 100%  
3 65% 85% Median
4 19% 20%  
5 0.6% 0.6%  
6 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 12% 100%  
3 59% 88% Median
4 28% 30%  
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 4% 100%  
2 40% 96%  
3 48% 55% Median
4 7% 7%  
5 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 7% 100%  
2 79% 93% Median
3 14% 14%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.4% 100% Last Result
1 61% 99.6% Median
2 38% 38%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 29% 100% Last Result
1 70% 71% Median
2 0.8% 0.8%  
3 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.2% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.8% 0.8%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.1% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.9% 0.9%  
2 0% 0%  

Centrum dla Polski (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centrum dla Polski (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.5% 0.5%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 3 0% 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–5
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 2 0% 2–3 1–3 1–3 1–3
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–1

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 12% 100%  
3 59% 88% Median
4 28% 30%  
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 7% 100%  
2 79% 93% Median
3 14% 14%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.2% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.8% 0.8%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations