Opinion Poll by United Surveys for WP.pl, 8–9 February 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 32.9% 30.9–34.9% 30.4–35.5% 29.9–36.0% 29.0–37.0%
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 32.0% 30.0–34.0% 29.5–34.6% 29.0–35.1% 28.1–36.1%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 7.8% 6.7–9.0% 6.4–9.4% 6.2–9.7% 5.7–10.3%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 6.4% 5.4–7.5% 5.2–7.8% 4.9–8.1% 4.5–8.7%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 4.7% 3.9–5.7% 3.7–6.0% 3.5–6.3% 3.2–6.8%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 4.6% 3.8–5.6% 3.6–5.9% 3.4–6.2% 3.1–6.7%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 3.9% 3.2–4.9% 3.0–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.5–5.9%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 3.1% 2.4–3.9% 2.3–4.2% 2.1–4.4% 1.9–4.9%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.8% 1.3–2.5% 1.2–2.7% 1.1–2.8% 0.9–3.2%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.1% 0.8–1.7% 0.7–1.9% 0.6–2.0% 0.5–2.3%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0.0% 0.4% 0.3–0.9% 0.2–1.0% 0.2–1.1% 0.1–1.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 18 17–18 17–19 16–19 16–20
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 18 17–19 17–20 17–20 16–21
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 4 4 4 3–5 3–5
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 2–5
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 1–4
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 2 2–3 2–4 2–4 1–4
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 1–3
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–2
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–2 0–2
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.5% 100%  
16 2% 99.5%  
17 47% 97%  
18 41% 50% Median
19 9% 9%  
20 0.5% 0.5%  
21 0% 0%  

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.5% 100%  
17 15% 99.5%  
18 36% 85% Median
19 43% 49%  
20 6% 7%  
21 1.1% 1.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 5% 100%  
4 91% 95% Median
5 4% 4%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.7% 100%  
3 28% 99.3%  
4 70% 71% Median
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.5% 100%  
2 53% 99.5% Median
3 46% 47%  
4 0.9% 0.9%  
5 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.6% 100%  
2 68% 99.4% Median
3 24% 31%  
4 7% 7%  
5 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 2% 100%  
2 62% 98% Median
3 37% 37%  
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 21% 100%  
2 78% 79% Median
3 0.2% 0.2%  
4 0% 0%  

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 73% 100% Last Result, Median
1 25% 27%  
2 3% 3%  
3 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.4% 0.4%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.5% 0.5%  
2 0% 0%  

Centrum dla Polski (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centrum dla Polski (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 4 0% 3–4 3–4 3–4 2–5
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 2 0% 2–3 2–4 2–4 1–4
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.7% 100%  
3 28% 99.3%  
4 70% 71% Median
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.6% 100%  
2 68% 99.4% Median
3 24% 31%  
4 7% 7%  
5 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.4% 0.4%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations