Opinion Poll by Instytut Badań Pollster for Super Express, 8–10 February 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 33.2% 31.4–35.1% 30.9–35.7% 30.5–36.1% 29.6–37.0%
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 28.5% 26.8–30.3% 26.3–30.8% 25.9–31.3% 25.1–32.2%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 7.1% 6.1–8.2% 5.9–8.5% 5.7–8.7% 5.3–9.3%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 6.9% 6.0–8.0% 5.7–8.3% 5.5–8.6% 5.1–9.1%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 5.2% 4.4–6.2% 4.2–6.5% 4.0–6.7% 3.7–7.2%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 4.6% 3.9–5.6% 3.7–5.8% 3.5–6.1% 3.2–6.6%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 3.8% 3.2–4.7% 3.0–4.9% 2.8–5.1% 2.5–5.6%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 3.4% 2.8–4.3% 2.6–4.5% 2.5–4.7% 2.2–5.1%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.7% 1.3–2.3% 1.1–2.5% 1.1–2.6% 0.9–3.0%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.6% 1.2–2.2% 1.1–2.4% 1.0–2.5% 0.8–2.9%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–0.9% 0.2–1.0% 0.2–1.1% 0.1–1.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 19 17–19 17–20 17–20 17–20
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 17 16–18 16–18 15–18 15–19
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 4 4–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 2 2 2–3 2–3 1–3
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 2 2 2 1–2 1–3
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.2% 100%  
17 25% 99.8%  
18 7% 75%  
19 58% 67% Median
20 9% 9%  
21 0.2% 0.3%  
22 0% 0%  

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 3% 100%  
16 12% 97%  
17 57% 85% Median
18 26% 28%  
19 2% 2%  
20 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 8% 99.9%  
4 66% 92% Median
5 26% 26%  
6 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0.4% 99.9%  
3 33% 99.5%  
4 66% 67% Median
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.3% 100%  
2 60% 99.7% Median
3 38% 40%  
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 11% 100%  
3 88% 89% Median
4 0.5% 0.5%  
5 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 2% 100%  
2 90% 98% Median
3 8% 8%  
4 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 5% 100%  
2 94% 95% Median
3 2% 2%  
4 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 81% 100% Last Result, Median
1 19% 19%  
2 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Centrum dla Polski (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centrum dla Polski (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 4 0% 4–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 2 0% 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 8% 99.9%  
4 66% 92% Median
5 26% 26%  
6 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.3% 100%  
2 60% 99.7% Median
3 38% 40%  
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations