Opinion Poll by Opinia24 for RMF FM, 10–13 February 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 30.3% 28.5–32.3% 28.0–32.8% 27.5–33.3% 26.6–34.3%
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 29.2% 27.3–31.1% 26.8–31.7% 26.4–32.2% 25.5–33.1%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 8.8% 7.7–10.1% 7.4–10.4% 7.1–10.8% 6.7–11.4%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 6.5% 5.6–7.6% 5.3–8.0% 5.1–8.2% 4.7–8.8%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 5.8% 4.9–6.8% 4.6–7.1% 4.4–7.4% 4.1–8.0%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 4.4% 3.6–5.4% 3.4–5.7% 3.3–5.9% 2.9–6.4%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 4.3% 3.6–5.3% 3.4–5.5% 3.2–5.8% 2.9–6.3%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 3.6% 2.9–4.5% 2.7–4.7% 2.5–4.9% 2.3–5.4%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.0% 2.4–3.9% 2.3–4.1% 2.1–4.3% 1.9–4.8%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.7% 1.2–2.3% 1.1–2.5% 1.0–2.7% 0.9–3.1%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.6%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.6%
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0.0% 0.4% 0.2–0.8% 0.2–1.0% 0.2–1.1% 0.1–1.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 18 17–20 17–20 16–20 16–21
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 16 15–18 15–18 15–18 14–19
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 5 4–6 4–6 4–7 4–7
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 4 3–4 3–5 3–5 2–5
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 3 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–4
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–4 1–4
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 2 2–3 1–3 1–3 1–4
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 2 1–3 1–3 1–3 1–3
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.1% 100%  
16 4% 99.9%  
17 23% 96%  
18 29% 73% Median
19 19% 44%  
20 23% 24%  
21 2% 2%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.1% 100%  
14 1.3% 99.9%  
15 37% 98.6%  
16 36% 62% Median
17 14% 26%  
18 11% 12%  
19 1.0% 1.0%  
20 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.4% 100%  
4 18% 99.6%  
5 55% 82% Median
6 25% 27%  
7 3% 3%  
8 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 2% 100%  
3 36% 98%  
4 56% 62% Median
5 6% 6%  
6 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 17% 100% Last Result
1 0% 83%  
2 3% 83%  
3 68% 80% Median
4 12% 12%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.8% 100%  
2 45% 99.2%  
3 51% 54% Median
4 3% 3%  
5 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 5% 100%  
2 56% 95% Median
3 38% 39%  
4 1.0% 1.0%  
5 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 27% 100%  
2 56% 73% Median
3 16% 17%  
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.2%  
2 0.1% 0.2%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 60% 100% Last Result, Median
1 40% 40%  
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.3% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.7% 0.7%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 3% 3%  
2 0% 0%  

Centrum dla Polski (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centrum dla Polski (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.2% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.8% 0.8%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 5 0% 4–6 4–6 4–7 4–7
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 4 0% 3–4 3–5 3–5 2–5
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–1

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.4% 100%  
4 18% 99.6%  
5 55% 82% Median
6 25% 27%  
7 3% 3%  
8 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 2% 100%  
3 36% 98%  
4 56% 62% Median
5 6% 6%  
6 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.2%  
2 0.1% 0.2%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.3% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.7% 0.7%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations