Opinion Poll by Ipsos for TVP, 17–18 February 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 31.8% 29.4–34.4% 28.8–35.1% 28.2–35.7% 27.1–37.0%
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 28.1% 25.8–30.6% 25.1–31.3% 24.6–31.9% 23.5–33.1%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 7.7% 6.4–9.3% 6.1–9.8% 5.8–10.2% 5.3–11.0%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 6.3% 5.2–7.8% 4.9–8.2% 4.6–8.6% 4.1–9.4%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 5.7% 4.6–7.1% 4.3–7.5% 4.1–7.8% 3.6–8.6%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 5.5% 4.4–6.9% 4.1–7.3% 3.9–7.6% 3.5–8.4%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 4.6% 3.7–5.9% 3.4–6.3% 3.2–6.6% 2.8–7.3%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 3.8% 2.9–5.0% 2.7–5.3% 2.5–5.6% 2.1–6.3%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.1% 1.5–3.0% 1.3–3.3% 1.2–3.6% 0.9–4.1%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.5% 1.1–2.4% 0.9–2.7% 0.8–2.9% 0.6–3.4%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.4% 0.3–1.6% 0.3–1.8% 0.2–2.1%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.4% 0.3–1.6% 0.3–1.8% 0.2–2.1%
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.3% 0.2–1.5% 0.1–1.9%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 17 16–18 15–19 15–19 15–20
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 18 16–19 16–19 15–19 14–19
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 5 4–5 3–5 3–6 3–6
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 3 3–4 3–4 2–4 0–5
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 3–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 3 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 2 2–3 2–4 2–4 1–4
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 2 1–2 1–3 1–3 1–3
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.2% 100%  
15 6% 99.8%  
16 18% 94%  
17 43% 76% Median
18 26% 33%  
19 6% 7%  
20 0.7% 0.9%  
21 0.1% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.1% 100%  
14 0.4% 99.9%  
15 4% 99.5%  
16 19% 96%  
17 22% 77%  
18 40% 55% Median
19 14% 15%  
20 0.3% 0.4%  
21 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 7% 100%  
4 29% 93%  
5 59% 64% Median
6 5% 5%  
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 0% 98%  
2 2% 98%  
3 72% 95% Median
4 22% 24%  
5 1.1% 1.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.1% 100%  
2 8% 99.9%  
3 64% 92% Median
4 27% 28%  
5 0.2% 0.3%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 18% 100%  
3 65% 82% Median
4 17% 18%  
5 0.4% 0.4%  
6 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 1.0% 100%  
2 58% 99.0% Median
3 34% 41%  
4 7% 7%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 31% 100%  
2 63% 69% Median
3 6% 6%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 78% 100% Last Result, Median
1 21% 22%  
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 4% 4%  
2 0% 0%  

Centrum dla Polski (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centrum dla Polski (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.0% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.0% 1.0%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 5 0% 4–5 3–5 3–6 3–6
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 0% 3–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–1

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 7% 100%  
4 29% 93%  
5 59% 64% Median
6 5% 5%  
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.1% 100%  
2 8% 99.9%  
3 64% 92% Median
4 27% 28%  
5 0.2% 0.3%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations