Opinion Poll by Research Partner for Ariadna, 21–24 February 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 32.1% 30.2–34.0% 29.6–34.6% 29.2–35.1% 28.3–36.0%
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 28.9% 27.0–30.8% 26.5–31.3% 26.1–31.8% 25.2–32.7%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 9.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.6–10.7% 7.3–11.0% 6.9–11.6%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 6.9% 6.0–8.1% 5.7–8.4% 5.5–8.7% 5.1–9.3%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 5.1% 4.3–6.1% 4.0–6.4% 3.9–6.6% 3.5–7.2%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 3.9–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.4–7.0%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 4.1% 3.4–5.1% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.6% 2.7–6.1%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 3.4% 2.8–4.3% 2.6–4.5% 2.4–4.8% 2.2–5.2%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.6% 1.1–2.2% 1.0–2.4% 0.9–2.5% 0.8–2.9%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.6%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.6%
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.2% 0.2–1.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 18 16–18 16–19 16–19 16–20
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 17 17–18 16–18 16–19 15–19
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 5 4–5 4–6 4–6 3–6
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–5 3–5
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 3 3 2–3 2–3 2–4
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 2 1–3 1–3 1–3 1–3
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–3 1–3
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.5% 100%  
16 10% 99.5%  
17 34% 89%  
18 49% 55% Median
19 4% 6%  
20 2% 2%  
21 0% 0%  

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.2% 100%  
15 1.1% 99.8%  
16 7% 98.7%  
17 53% 92% Median
18 35% 39%  
19 3% 4%  
20 0.5% 0.5%  
21 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 2% 100%  
4 26% 98%  
5 65% 73% Median
6 7% 7%  
7 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.4% 100%  
3 44% 99.6%  
4 52% 55% Median
5 3% 4%  
6 0.3% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 34% 100%  
3 64% 66% Median
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.1% 100%  
2 8% 99.9%  
3 90% 92% Median
4 2% 2%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 15% 100%  
2 68% 85% Median
3 17% 17%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 32% 100%  
2 65% 68% Median
3 3% 3%  
4 0% 0%  

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 60% 100% Last Result, Median
1 40% 40%  
2 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.0% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.0% 1.0%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Centrum dla Polski (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centrum dla Polski (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 4 0% 3–4 3–4 3–5 3–5
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 0% 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–1

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.4% 100%  
3 44% 99.6%  
4 52% 55% Median
5 3% 4%  
6 0.3% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 34% 100%  
3 64% 66% Median
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.0% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.0% 1.0%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations