Opinion Poll by Social Changes, 1–28 February 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 31.8% 29.9–33.9% 29.4–34.4% 28.9–34.9% 28.0–35.9%
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 31.0% 29.0–33.0% 28.5–33.5% 28.0–34.0% 27.1–35.0%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 7.5% 6.4–8.7% 6.2–9.1% 5.9–9.4% 5.5–10.0%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 6.6% 5.6–7.8% 5.4–8.1% 5.2–8.4% 4.7–9.0%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 5.5% 4.6–6.6% 4.4–6.9% 4.2–7.2% 3.8–7.7%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 4.6% 3.8–5.6% 3.6–5.9% 3.4–6.2% 3.1–6.7%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 3.7% 3.0–4.7% 2.8–4.9% 2.7–5.2% 2.4–5.7%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 3.6% 2.9–4.6% 2.7–4.8% 2.6–5.0% 2.3–5.5%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.8% 1.3–2.5% 1.2–2.7% 1.1–2.8% 0.9–3.2%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.1% 0.8–1.7% 0.7–1.9% 0.6–2.0% 0.5–2.3%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0.0% 0.4% 0.3–0.9% 0.2–1.0% 0.2–1.1% 0.1–1.4%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 18 17–19 16–19 16–19 15–20
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 18 17–19 16–19 16–20 16–20
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 4 4–5 3–5 3–6 3–6
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 3 3–4 2–4 2–4 0–4
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 2–3 2–4 2–4 2–4
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 3 2–3 2–4 2–4 2–4
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 2 1–2 1–3 1–3 1–3
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 2 1–3 1–3 1–3 1–3
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.9% 100%  
16 8% 99.1%  
17 39% 91%  
18 37% 52% Median
19 14% 14%  
20 0.6% 0.6%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.1% 100%  
16 9% 99.9%  
17 25% 91%  
18 34% 66% Median
19 27% 31%  
20 4% 5%  
21 0.4% 0.4%  
22 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 10% 100%  
4 58% 90% Median
5 27% 32%  
6 5% 5%  
7 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.5% 100% Last Result
1 0% 98.5%  
2 5% 98.5%  
3 71% 94% Median
4 22% 22%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 25% 100%  
3 66% 74% Median
4 9% 9%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.1% 100%  
2 23% 99.9%  
3 70% 77% Median
4 7% 7%  
5 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 18% 100%  
2 74% 82% Median
3 8% 8%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 27% 100%  
2 59% 73% Median
3 14% 14%  
4 0% 0%  

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 39% 100% Last Result
1 60% 61% Median
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.3% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.7% 0.7%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Centrum dla Polski (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centrum dla Polski (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 4 0% 4–5 3–5 3–6 3–6
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 0% 2–3 2–4 2–4 2–4
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–1

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 10% 100%  
4 58% 90% Median
5 27% 32%  
6 5% 5%  
7 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 25% 100%  
3 66% 74% Median
4 9% 9%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.3% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.7% 0.7%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations