Opinion Poll by IBRiS for Rzeczpospolita, 7–8 March 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 32.2% 30.3–34.2% 29.7–34.7% 29.2–35.2% 28.3–36.2%
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 31.3% 29.4–33.3% 28.9–33.9% 28.4–34.4% 27.5–35.3%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 8.7% 7.7–10.0% 7.3–10.4% 7.1–10.7% 6.6–11.4%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 6.4% 5.5–7.5% 5.2–7.9% 5.0–8.2% 4.6–8.7%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 5.1% 4.3–6.2% 4.1–6.5% 3.9–6.7% 3.5–7.3%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 4.3% 3.5–5.2% 3.3–5.5% 3.1–5.8% 2.8–6.3%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 3.4% 2.8–4.3% 2.6–4.6% 2.4–4.8% 2.1–5.2%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 2.9% 2.3–3.7% 2.1–3.9% 2.0–4.2% 1.7–4.6%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.1% 1.6–2.9% 1.5–3.1% 1.4–3.3% 1.2–3.7%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.8% 1.4–2.5% 1.2–2.7% 1.1–2.9% 0.9–3.3%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.4% 0.4–1.5% 0.3–1.8%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.4% 0.4–1.5% 0.3–1.8%
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0.0% 0.3% 0.2–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.1–0.9% 0.1–1.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 19 18–19 18–20 18–20 17–21
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 17 16–19 16–19 16–19 16–19
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 5 5 5–6 4–6 4–6
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 2 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–3
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 2 2 2–3 1–3 1–3
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 0–3
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 2 2 1–2 1–2 0–2
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 1 1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0.7% 100%  
18 46% 99.3%  
19 45% 53% Median
20 7% 9%  
21 2% 2%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.3% 100%  
16 10% 99.7%  
17 41% 89% Median
18 7% 48%  
19 41% 41%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 5% 99.9%  
5 86% 95% Median
6 10% 10%  
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 61% 100% Median
4 8% 39%  
5 31% 31%  
6 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 36% 100% Last Result
1 0% 64%  
2 48% 64% Median
3 16% 16%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 4% 100%  
2 87% 96% Median
3 9% 9%  
4 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.2% 100% Last Result
1 49% 98.8%  
2 49% 50% Median
3 1.0% 1.0%  
4 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.2% 100% Last Result
1 9% 98.8%  
2 90% 90% Median
3 0.4% 0.4%  
4 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 8% 100% Last Result
1 92% 92% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.2% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.8% 0.8%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Centrum dla Polski (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centrum dla Polski (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 5 0% 5 5–6 4–6 4–6
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 0% 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–1

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 5% 99.9%  
5 86% 95% Median
6 10% 10%  
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 61% 100% Median
4 8% 39%  
5 31% 31%  
6 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.2% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.8% 0.8%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations