Opinion Poll by United Surveys for WP.pl, 7–9 March 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 32.2% 30.3–34.3% 29.7–34.9% 29.2–35.4% 28.3–36.4%
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 31.9% 29.9–34.0% 29.4–34.6% 28.9–35.1% 28.0–36.0%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 8.7% 7.6–10.0% 7.3–10.4% 7.0–10.7% 6.5–11.4%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 6.4% 5.5–7.6% 5.2–7.9% 5.0–8.2% 4.6–8.8%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 5.5% 4.6–6.6% 4.4–7.0% 4.2–7.2% 3.8–7.8%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 4.3% 3.5–5.3% 3.3–5.6% 3.1–5.8% 2.8–6.4%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 3.4% 2.7–4.3% 2.5–4.6% 2.4–4.8% 2.1–5.3%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 2.8% 2.2–3.7% 2.1–3.9% 1.9–4.1% 1.7–4.6%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.8% 1.3–2.5% 1.2–2.7% 1.1–2.9% 0.9–3.3%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.2% 0.9–1.9% 0.8–2.0% 0.7–2.2% 0.5–2.6%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.5% 0.2–1.8%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.5% 0.2–1.8%
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0.0% 0.3% 0.2–0.8% 0.2–0.9% 0.1–1.0% 0.1–1.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 17 16–19 16–19 16–19 15–20
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 18 17–20 17–20 17–21 16–21
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 4 3–4 3–5 3–5 2–5
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 2 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 3 2–3 2–3 1–3 1–3
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 2 1–3 1–3 1–3 0–3
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 0–3
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.7% 100%  
16 27% 99.2%  
17 29% 72% Median
18 22% 44%  
19 21% 22%  
20 0.5% 0.7%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.9% 99.9%  
17 19% 99.0%  
18 41% 80% Median
19 19% 39%  
20 16% 20%  
21 4% 4%  
22 0.3% 0.3%  
23 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.4% 100%  
4 31% 99.6%  
5 57% 69% Median
6 11% 11%  
7 0.3% 0.3%  
8 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 2% 100%  
3 40% 98%  
4 53% 58% Median
5 5% 6%  
6 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 16% 100% Last Result
1 0% 84%  
2 43% 84% Median
3 41% 41%  
4 0.9% 0.9%  
5 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 3% 100%  
2 45% 97%  
3 52% 52% Median
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.9% 100% Last Result
1 15% 99.1%  
2 73% 84% Median
3 11% 11%  
4 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.9% 100% Last Result
1 49% 99.1%  
2 49% 50% Median
3 1.2% 1.2%  
4 0% 0%  

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 38% 100% Last Result
1 61% 62% Median
2 1.1% 1.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.4% 0.4%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 90% 100% Last Result, Median
1 10% 10%  
2 0% 0%  

Centrum dla Polski (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centrum dla Polski (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 5 0% 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 4 0% 3–4 3–5 3–5 2–5
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.4% 100%  
4 31% 99.6%  
5 57% 69% Median
6 11% 11%  
7 0.3% 0.3%  
8 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 2% 100%  
3 40% 98%  
4 53% 58% Median
5 5% 6%  
6 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.4% 0.4%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations