Opinion Poll by Ipsos for TVP, 11–13 March 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 30.6% 28.3–33.2% 27.6–33.9% 27.1–34.5% 26.0–35.7%
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 30.3% 28.0–32.8% 27.3–33.5% 26.7–34.1% 25.7–35.3%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 7.7% 6.5–9.3% 6.1–9.8% 5.9–10.2% 5.3–11.0%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 6.6% 5.4–8.1% 5.1–8.5% 4.8–8.9% 4.3–9.6%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 5.7% 4.7–7.1% 4.4–7.5% 4.1–7.9% 3.7–8.6%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 4.5% 3.6–5.8% 3.4–6.2% 3.1–6.5% 2.7–7.2%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 3.9% 3.0–5.1% 2.8–5.4% 2.6–5.7% 2.2–6.4%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 3.7% 2.9–4.9% 2.7–5.2% 2.5–5.5% 2.1–6.2%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.2% 2.4–4.3% 2.2–4.7% 2.1–5.0% 1.8–5.5%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.7% 1.2–2.6% 1.0–2.8% 0.9–3.1% 0.7–3.6%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.5% 0.3–1.7% 0.2–2.1%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.5% 0.3–1.7% 0.2–2.1%
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.3% 0.2–1.5% 0.1–1.8%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 18 16–20 16–20 16–21 15–21
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 17 15–18 14–19 14–19 14–19
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 4 3–5 3–6 3–6 3–6
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 3 0–4 0–5 0–5 0–5
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–5
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 2 2–3 2–4 2–4 1–5
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 2 2–3 2–3 1–3 1–3
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 2 1–3 1–3 1–3 1–4
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0–3
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–2 0–2
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.1% 100%  
15 2% 99.9%  
16 10% 98%  
17 28% 88%  
18 31% 60% Median
19 15% 28%  
20 9% 13%  
21 4% 4%  
22 0.1% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.4% 100%  
14 8% 99.6%  
15 8% 91%  
16 20% 84%  
17 26% 64% Median
18 29% 38%  
19 8% 8%  
20 0.3% 0.3%  
21 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 18% 99.9%  
4 55% 82% Median
5 18% 27%  
6 10% 10%  
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 10% 100% Last Result
1 0% 90%  
2 3% 90%  
3 43% 87% Median
4 39% 44%  
5 5% 5%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.3% 100%  
2 13% 99.7%  
3 68% 87% Median
4 17% 18%  
5 1.1% 1.1%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 2% 100%  
2 51% 98% Median
3 41% 47%  
4 5% 6%  
5 0.7% 0.7%  
6 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 5% 100%  
2 65% 95% Median
3 29% 30%  
4 0.5% 0.5%  
5 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 11% 100%  
2 75% 89% Median
3 12% 14%  
4 1.3% 1.3%  
5 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 2%  
2 0.3% 2%  
3 2% 2%  
4 0% 0%  

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 32% 100% Last Result
1 65% 68% Median
2 4% 4%  
3 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 4% 4%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 95% 100% Last Result, Median
1 5% 5%  
2 0% 0%  

Centrum dla Polski (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centrum dla Polski (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 86% 100% Last Result, Median
1 14% 14%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 4 0% 3–5 3–6 3–6 3–6
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 0% 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–5
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0–1 0–1
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–3

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 18% 99.9%  
4 55% 82% Median
5 18% 27%  
6 10% 10%  
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.3% 100%  
2 13% 99.7%  
3 68% 87% Median
4 17% 18%  
5 1.1% 1.1%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 4% 4%  
2 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 2%  
2 0.3% 2%  
3 2% 2%  
4 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations