Opinion Poll by Opinia24 for RMF FM, 10–13 March 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) | 0.0% | 32.3% | 29.9–34.9% | 29.2–35.7% | 28.6–36.3% | 27.5–37.5% |
| Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) | 0.0% | 27.5% | 25.2–30.0% | 24.5–30.7% | 24.0–31.3% | 22.9–32.5% |
| Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) | 0.0% | 10.1% | 8.6–11.9% | 8.2–12.4% | 7.9–12.8% | 7.2–13.7% |
| Ruch Narodowy (PfE) | 0.0% | 7.3% | 6.1–8.9% | 5.7–9.3% | 5.4–9.7% | 4.9–10.5% |
| Nowa Lewica (S&D) | 0.0% | 5.0% | 4.0–6.4% | 3.8–6.8% | 3.5–7.2% | 3.1–7.9% |
| Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) | 0.0% | 4.9% | 3.9–6.2% | 3.6–6.6% | 3.4–7.0% | 3.0–7.7% |
| Polska 2050 (RE) | 0.0% | 3.7% | 2.8–4.9% | 2.6–5.2% | 2.4–5.5% | 2.1–6.2% |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) | 0.0% | 3.0% | 2.2–4.1% | 2.0–4.4% | 1.9–4.7% | 1.6–5.3% |
| Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 2.4% | 1.8–3.5% | 1.6–3.8% | 1.5–4.1% | 1.2–4.6% |
| .Nowoczesna (RE) | 0.0% | 1.7% | 1.2–2.7% | 1.1–2.9% | 0.9–3.2% | 0.7–3.7% |
| Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.4–1.4% | 0.3–1.6% | 0.3–1.8% | 0.2–2.2% |
| Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.4–1.4% | 0.3–1.6% | 0.3–1.8% | 0.2–2.2% |
| Centrum dla Polski (*) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.9% | 0.1–1.1% | 0.1–1.2% | 0.0–1.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) | 0 | 20 | 18–22 | 17–22 | 16–22 | 16–23 |
| Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) | 0 | 16 | 14–17 | 13–17 | 13–18 | 12–18 |
| Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) | 0 | 5 | 5–7 | 4–7 | 4–8 | 4–8 |
| Ruch Narodowy (PfE) | 0 | 4 | 3–5 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 |
| Nowa Lewica (S&D) | 0 | 0 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) | 0 | 3 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 1–4 |
| Polska 2050 (RE) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 0–4 |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) | 0 | 1 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 0–3 |
| Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| .Nowoczesna (RE) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Centrum dla Polski (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 16 | 2% | 99.9% | |
| 17 | 4% | 97% | |
| 18 | 17% | 94% | |
| 19 | 26% | 76% | |
| 20 | 17% | 50% | Median |
| 21 | 19% | 33% | |
| 22 | 13% | 14% | |
| 23 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 24 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 25 | 0% | 0% |
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.7% | 100% | |
| 13 | 5% | 99.3% | |
| 14 | 19% | 94% | |
| 15 | 19% | 75% | |
| 16 | 38% | 56% | Median |
| 17 | 15% | 18% | |
| 18 | 3% | 3% | |
| 19 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 10% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 43% | 90% | Median |
| 6 | 27% | 47% | |
| 7 | 15% | 19% | |
| 8 | 5% | 5% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Ruch Narodowy (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 3 | 27% | 99.5% | |
| 4 | 35% | 73% | Median |
| 5 | 32% | 38% | |
| 6 | 6% | 6% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Nowa Lewica (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 69% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 31% | |
| 2 | 8% | 31% | |
| 3 | 20% | 23% | |
| 4 | 2% | 3% | |
| 5 | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 1.4% | 100% | |
| 2 | 46% | 98.6% | |
| 3 | 40% | 52% | Median |
| 4 | 12% | 12% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Polska 2050 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.8% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 9% | 99.2% | |
| 2 | 53% | 91% | Median |
| 3 | 37% | 38% | |
| 4 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.9% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 50% | 99.1% | Median |
| 2 | 39% | 49% | |
| 3 | 10% | 10% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.7% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
.Nowoczesna (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 40% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 58% | 60% | Median |
| 2 | 2% | 2% | |
| 3 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 3% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 93% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 7% | 7% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Centrum dla Polski (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centrum dla Polski (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 2% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 5–7 | 4–7 | 4–8 | 4–8 |
| Ruch Narodowy (PfE) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 3–5 | 3–6 | 3–6 | 3–6 |
| Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 4 | 10% | 99.9% | |
| 5 | 43% | 90% | Median |
| 6 | 27% | 47% | |
| 7 | 15% | 19% | |
| 8 | 5% | 5% | |
| 9 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 10 | 0% | 0% |
Ruch Narodowy (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 3 | 27% | 99.5% | |
| 4 | 35% | 73% | Median |
| 5 | 32% | 38% | |
| 6 | 6% | 6% | |
| 7 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 8 | 0% | 0% |
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 3% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.7% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.3% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 0.3% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Opinia24
- Commissioner(s): RMF FM
- Fieldwork period: 10–13 March 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 575
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 3.49%