Opinion Poll by Opinia24, 17–21 March 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 33.3% 31.4–35.3% 30.9–35.9% 30.4–36.4% 29.5–37.4%
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 28.4% 26.6–30.3% 26.0–30.9% 25.6–31.4% 24.8–32.3%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 8.7% 7.7–10.0% 7.3–10.4% 7.1–10.7% 6.6–11.3%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 6.4% 5.5–7.6% 5.2–7.9% 5.0–8.2% 4.6–8.7%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 4.8% 4.1–5.9% 3.8–6.1% 3.6–6.4% 3.3–6.9%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 4.3% 3.6–5.3% 3.4–5.6% 3.2–5.8% 2.9–6.3%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 3.9% 3.2–4.8% 3.0–5.1% 2.8–5.3% 2.5–5.8%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 3.3% 2.6–4.1% 2.5–4.4% 2.3–4.6% 2.0–5.0%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.5% 2.0–3.3% 1.8–3.5% 1.7–3.7% 1.5–4.1%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.8% 1.3–2.5% 1.2–2.7% 1.1–2.9% 0.9–3.2%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.4% 0.4–1.5% 0.3–1.8%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.4% 0.4–1.5% 0.3–1.8%
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0.0% 0.4% 0.2–0.8% 0.2–1.0% 0.2–1.1% 0.1–1.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 20 18–21 18–21 18–23 18–23
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 16 15–17 14–17 14–17 14–20
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–7
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 4 3–4 3–4 2–5 2–5
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 3 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–3
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 1–3
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 2 2–3 1–3 1–3 1–3
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 2 1–2 1–3 1–3 1–3
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0.2% 100%  
18 28% 99.8%  
19 21% 72%  
20 28% 51% Median
21 18% 23%  
22 2% 4%  
23 3% 3%  
24 0% 0%  

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.2% 100%  
14 6% 99.8%  
15 13% 94%  
16 50% 80% Median
17 28% 31%  
18 2% 2%  
19 0.1% 0.7%  
20 0.6% 0.6%  
21 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 32% 100%  
5 52% 68% Median
6 14% 16%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 3% 100%  
3 44% 97%  
4 50% 53% Median
5 3% 3%  
6 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 29% 100% Last Result
1 0% 71%  
2 2% 71%  
3 68% 69% Median
4 0.3% 0.3%  
5 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 2% 100%  
2 70% 98% Median
3 28% 28%  
4 0.4% 0.4%  
5 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 6% 100%  
2 80% 94% Median
3 14% 14%  
4 0.4% 0.4%  
5 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 25% 100%  
2 66% 75% Median
3 9% 9%  
4 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 34% 100% Last Result
1 66% 66% Median
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.1% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.9% 0.9%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Centrum dla Polski (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centrum dla Polski (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.5% 0.5%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 5 0% 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–7
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 4 0% 3–4 3–4 2–5 2–5
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–1

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 32% 100%  
5 52% 68% Median
6 14% 16%  
7 2% 2%  
8 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 3% 100%  
3 44% 97%  
4 50% 53% Median
5 3% 3%  
6 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.1% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.9% 0.9%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations