Opinion Poll by United Surveys for WP.pl, 21–23 March 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 28.2% 26.3–30.3% 25.8–30.8% 25.3–31.3% 24.4–32.3%
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 26.5% 24.6–28.5% 24.1–29.1% 23.6–29.5% 22.8–30.5%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 7.4% 6.4–8.7% 6.1–9.1% 5.9–9.4% 5.4–10.0%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 5.5% 4.6–6.6% 4.3–6.9% 4.1–7.2% 3.7–7.8%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 4.6% 3.8–5.7% 3.6–6.0% 3.4–6.3% 3.1–6.8%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 3.6% 2.9–4.6% 2.7–4.8% 2.5–5.1% 2.2–5.6%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 3.5% 2.8–4.4% 2.6–4.7% 2.5–4.9% 2.2–5.4%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 2.9% 2.3–3.8% 2.1–4.0% 2.0–4.3% 1.7–4.7%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.5% 1.1–2.2% 1.0–2.4% 0.9–2.6% 0.7–2.9%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 0.8% 0.5–1.4% 0.5–1.5% 0.4–1.7% 0.3–2.0%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.2–1.4% 0.2–1.6%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.2–1.4% 0.2–1.6%
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0.0% 0.3% 0.2–0.8% 0.2–0.9% 0.1–1.0% 0.1–1.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 19 18–20 18–21 18–22 17–22
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 17 15–19 15–19 15–19 14–20
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 5 5–6 4–6 4–6 4–7
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 3–4 3–4 2–5 2–5
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 1–4
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 1–3
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–3 1–3
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.2% 100%  
17 1.3% 99.7%  
18 13% 98%  
19 53% 86% Median
20 26% 33%  
21 4% 7%  
22 3% 3%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.7% 100%  
15 22% 99.3%  
16 9% 77%  
17 48% 69% Median
18 7% 21%  
19 13% 14%  
20 0.9% 0.9%  
21 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.5% 100%  
4 9% 99.5%  
5 49% 91% Median
6 40% 42%  
7 1.3% 1.3%  
8 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 4% 100%  
3 81% 96% Median
4 12% 15%  
5 3% 3%  
6 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 65% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 35%  
2 0% 35%  
3 32% 35%  
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 2% 100%  
2 46% 98%  
3 51% 52% Median
4 0.8% 0.8%  
5 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.5% 100% Last Result
1 0.9% 99.5%  
2 67% 98.7% Median
3 31% 32%  
4 0.4% 0.4%  
5 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.5% 100% Last Result
1 12% 99.5%  
2 84% 88% Median
3 3% 3%  
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 36% 100% Last Result
1 64% 64% Median
2 0.5% 0.5%  
3 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.2% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.8% 0.8%  
2 0% 0%  

Centrum dla Polski (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centrum dla Polski (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.3% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.7% 0.7%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 5 0% 5–6 4–6 4–6 4–7
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 0% 3–4 3–4 2–5 2–5
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–1

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.5% 100%  
4 9% 99.5%  
5 49% 91% Median
6 40% 42%  
7 1.3% 1.3%  
8 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 4% 100%  
3 81% 96% Median
4 12% 15%  
5 3% 3%  
6 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations