Opinion Poll by Research Partner, 21–24 March 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) | 0.0% | 32.0% | 30.1–33.9% | 29.5–34.5% | 29.1–35.0% | 28.2–35.9% |
| Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) | 0.0% | 31.3% | 29.5–33.3% | 28.9–33.9% | 28.5–34.3% | 27.6–35.3% |
| Nowa Lewica (S&D) | 0.0% | 8.1% | 7.1–9.3% | 6.8–9.7% | 6.5–10.0% | 6.1–10.6% |
| Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) | 0.0% | 7.1% | 6.1–8.2% | 5.8–8.6% | 5.6–8.9% | 5.2–9.4% |
| Ruch Narodowy (PfE) | 0.0% | 5.2% | 4.4–6.2% | 4.1–6.5% | 3.9–6.8% | 3.6–7.3% |
| Polska 2050 (RE) | 0.0% | 3.9% | 3.2–4.9% | 3.0–5.1% | 2.9–5.4% | 2.6–5.9% |
| Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) | 0.0% | 3.4% | 2.8–4.3% | 2.6–4.6% | 2.4–4.8% | 2.2–5.2% |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) | 0.0% | 3.2% | 2.6–4.1% | 2.4–4.3% | 2.3–4.5% | 2.0–5.0% |
| .Nowoczesna (RE) | 0.0% | 1.8% | 1.3–2.4% | 1.2–2.6% | 1.1–2.8% | 0.9–3.2% |
| Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.5–1.2% | 0.4–1.4% | 0.4–1.5% | 0.3–1.8% |
| Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.5–1.2% | 0.4–1.4% | 0.4–1.5% | 0.3–1.8% |
| Centrum dla Polski (*) | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.2–0.8% | 0.2–1.0% | 0.2–1.1% | 0.1–1.3% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) | 0 | 17 | 16–19 | 16–19 | 16–19 | 15–20 |
| Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) | 0 | 18 | 17–19 | 17–20 | 17–20 | 16–21 |
| Nowa Lewica (S&D) | 0 | 4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–6 |
| Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) | 0 | 4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Ruch Narodowy (PfE) | 0 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Polska 2050 (RE) | 0 | 2 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) | 0 | 2 | 1–2 | 1–2 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| .Nowoczesna (RE) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Centrum dla Polski (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 2% | 100% | |
| 16 | 10% | 98% | |
| 17 | 52% | 89% | Median |
| 18 | 19% | 37% | |
| 19 | 17% | 18% | |
| 20 | 0.6% | 0.8% | |
| 21 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 0% | 100% | |
| 16 | 2% | 100% | |
| 17 | 20% | 98% | |
| 18 | 56% | 78% | Median |
| 19 | 14% | 22% | |
| 20 | 7% | 8% | |
| 21 | 0.7% | 0.8% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Nowa Lewica (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 16% | 100% | |
| 4 | 65% | 84% | Median |
| 5 | 19% | 19% | |
| 6 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 14% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 64% | 86% | Median |
| 5 | 22% | 23% | |
| 6 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Ruch Narodowy (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 27% | 100% | |
| 3 | 68% | 72% | Median |
| 4 | 4% | 4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Polska 2050 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 11% | 100% | |
| 2 | 60% | 89% | Median |
| 3 | 29% | 29% | |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 18% | 100% | |
| 2 | 78% | 82% | Median |
| 3 | 4% | 4% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 31% | 100% | |
| 2 | 66% | 69% | Median |
| 3 | 3% | 3% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
.Nowoczesna (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 80% | 80% | Median |
| 2 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 3% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 98% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 2% | 2% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Centrum dla Polski (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centrum dla Polski (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.6% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Ruch Narodowy (PfE) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 2–3 | 2–3 | 2–4 | 2–4 |
| Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 100% | |
| 3 | 14% | 99.9% | |
| 4 | 64% | 86% | Median |
| 5 | 22% | 23% | |
| 6 | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Ruch Narodowy (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 27% | 100% | |
| 3 | 68% | 72% | Median |
| 4 | 4% | 4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 3% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Research Partner
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 21–24 March 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 964
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.66%