Opinion Poll by United Surveys for WP.pl, 4–6 April 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 34.4% 32.4–36.4% 31.9–37.0% 31.4–37.5% 30.5–38.5%
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 31.1% 29.2–33.1% 28.7–33.7% 28.2–34.2% 27.3–35.2%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 8.0% 7.0–9.3% 6.7–9.6% 6.4–9.9% 5.9–10.6%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 5.8% 5.0–7.0% 4.7–7.3% 4.5–7.5% 4.1–8.1%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 5.4% 4.6–6.5% 4.3–6.8% 4.1–7.1% 3.7–7.6%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 3.9% 3.2–4.8% 3.0–5.1% 2.8–5.3% 2.5–5.8%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 3.9% 3.2–4.8% 3.0–5.1% 2.8–5.3% 2.5–5.8%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 3.2% 2.6–4.1% 2.4–4.4% 2.3–4.6% 2.0–5.1%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.8% 1.4–2.5% 1.2–2.7% 1.1–2.9% 1.0–3.3%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.8% 0.5–1.3% 0.4–1.4% 0.4–1.6% 0.3–1.8%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.8% 0.5–1.3% 0.4–1.4% 0.4–1.6% 0.3–1.8%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.3% 0.2–1.5%
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0.0% 0.3% 0.2–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.1–0.9% 0.1–1.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 19 19–21 18–21 18–22 17–23
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 17 16–18 16–18 16–20 15–20
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 4 4–5 4–5 3–5 3–6
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 3–4 3–4 2–4 2–4
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 3 0–3 0–4 0–4 0–4
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 2 2 2–3 2–3 1–3
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 2 2 2–3 1–3 1–3
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–3 1–3
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 1.3% 100%  
18 5% 98.7%  
19 51% 93% Median
20 22% 42%  
21 16% 20%  
22 3% 4%  
23 0.8% 0.8%  
24 0% 0%  

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 2% 100%  
16 48% 98%  
17 29% 50% Median
18 17% 22%  
19 2% 5%  
20 3% 3%  
21 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 4% 100%  
4 47% 96% Median
5 48% 49%  
6 1.2% 1.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 4% 100%  
3 79% 96% Median
4 16% 16%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 16% 100% Last Result
1 0% 84%  
2 18% 84%  
3 59% 67% Median
4 7% 7%  
5 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 2% 100%  
2 91% 98% Median
3 6% 7%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 3% 100%  
2 88% 97% Median
3 8% 8%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 25% 100%  
2 72% 75% Median
3 3% 3%  
4 0% 0%  

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 28% 100% Last Result
1 72% 72% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.2% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.8% 0.8%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 3% 3%  
2 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Centrum dla Polski (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centrum dla Polski (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 4 0% 4–5 4–5 3–5 3–6
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 0% 3–4 3–4 2–4 2–4
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–1

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 4% 100%  
4 47% 96% Median
5 48% 49%  
6 1.2% 1.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 4% 100%  
3 79% 96% Median
4 16% 16%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.2% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.8% 0.8%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations