Opinion Poll by United Surveys for WP.pl, 4–6 April 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 31.8% 29.9–33.8% 29.3–34.4% 28.9–34.9% 28.0–35.8%
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 28.8% 26.9–30.7% 26.4–31.3% 25.9–31.8% 25.1–32.7%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 7.4% 6.4–8.6% 6.1–8.9% 5.8–9.2% 5.4–9.8%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 5.4% 4.6–6.5% 4.3–6.8% 4.1–7.1% 3.7–7.6%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 3.9–6.3% 3.7–6.6% 3.4–7.1%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 3.6% 2.9–4.5% 2.7–4.7% 2.5–5.0% 2.3–5.5%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 3.6% 2.9–4.5% 2.7–4.7% 2.5–5.0% 2.3–5.5%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 2.9% 2.3–3.8% 2.1–4.0% 2.0–4.2% 1.8–4.7%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.7% 1.3–2.4% 1.2–2.6% 1.1–2.8% 0.9–3.2%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.3% 0.2–1.5%
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0.0% 0.3% 0.2–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.1–0.9% 0.1–1.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 20 19–22 18–22 18–22 17–23
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 17 16–18 15–18 15–18 15–19
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 5 4–5 3–5 3–6 3–6
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 3–4 3–4 2–4 2–5
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 3 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 2 1–3 1–3 1–3 1–3
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 2 1–3 1–3 1–3 1–3
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 2 1–3 1–3 1–3 1–3
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.7% 99.9%  
18 8% 99.2%  
19 24% 92%  
20 34% 67% Median
21 16% 33%  
22 15% 17%  
23 2% 2%  
24 0.2% 0.2%  
25 0% 0%  

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.5% 100%  
15 8% 99.5%  
16 19% 91%  
17 41% 72% Median
18 29% 31%  
19 2% 2%  
20 0.2% 0.2%  
21 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 5% 100%  
4 41% 95%  
5 50% 53% Median
6 3% 3%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 4% 100%  
3 78% 96% Median
4 17% 18%  
5 1.2% 1.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 40% 100% Last Result
1 0% 60%  
2 0.4% 60%  
3 59% 60% Median
4 0.7% 0.7%  
5 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 16% 99.8%  
2 69% 84% Median
3 16% 16%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 15% 100%  
2 72% 85% Median
3 12% 13%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 44% 99.8%  
2 41% 56% Median
3 15% 15%  
4 0% 0%  

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 25% 100% Last Result
1 73% 75% Median
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 0.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.2% 1.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Centrum dla Polski (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centrum dla Polski (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 5 0% 4–5 3–5 3–6 3–6
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 0% 3–4 3–4 2–4 2–5
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 5% 100%  
4 41% 95%  
5 50% 53% Median
6 3% 3%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 4% 100%  
3 78% 96% Median
4 17% 18%  
5 1.2% 1.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 0.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations