Opinion Poll by Opinia24 for RMF FM, 7–9 April 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 31.8% 29.9–33.8% 29.4–34.4% 28.9–34.9% 28.0–35.8%
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 29.7% 27.9–31.7% 27.4–32.2% 26.9–32.7% 26.0–33.7%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 7.8% 6.8–9.0% 6.5–9.3% 6.2–9.7% 5.8–10.3%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 5.9% 5.0–7.0% 4.8–7.3% 4.6–7.6% 4.2–8.1%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 5.7% 4.8–6.8% 4.6–7.1% 4.4–7.3% 4.0–7.9%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.6% 2.7–6.1%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 3.8% 3.1–4.7% 2.9–5.0% 2.7–5.2% 2.4–5.7%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 3.4% 2.7–4.2% 2.5–4.5% 2.4–4.7% 2.1–5.2%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.4% 2.7–4.2% 2.5–4.5% 2.4–4.7% 2.1–5.2%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.8% 1.3–2.5% 1.2–2.7% 1.1–2.9% 0.9–3.2%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.4% 0.4–1.5% 0.3–1.8%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.4% 0.4–1.5% 0.3–1.8%
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0.0% 0.4% 0.2–0.8% 0.2–1.0% 0.2–1.1% 0.1–1.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 19 18–21 18–21 17–21 16–21
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 17 16–18 15–18 14–19 14–19
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 4 4–5 4–5 3–5 3–6
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 3 0–3 0–4 0–4 0–5
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–5
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 2 2–3 2–3 1–3 1–3
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 2 1–2 1–3 1–3 1–3
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–2 0–2
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.5% 100%  
17 3% 99.5%  
18 38% 96%  
19 29% 58% Median
20 18% 30%  
21 12% 12%  
22 0.2% 0.3%  
23 0% 0%  

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 3% 100%  
15 5% 97%  
16 29% 92%  
17 48% 64% Median
18 12% 16%  
19 4% 4%  
20 0.1% 0.1%  
21 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 3% 100%  
4 63% 97% Median
5 32% 35%  
6 2% 2%  
7 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 15% 100% Last Result
1 0% 85%  
2 14% 85%  
3 63% 71% Median
4 8% 9%  
5 0.6% 0.6%  
6 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 17% 100%  
3 43% 83% Median
4 40% 40%  
5 0.5% 0.5%  
6 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.5% 100%  
2 49% 99.5%  
3 50% 51% Median
4 0.3% 0.3%  
5 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 4% 100%  
2 86% 96% Median
3 10% 10%  
4 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 21% 100%  
2 74% 79% Median
3 5% 5%  
4 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.2%  
2 0.1% 0.2%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 26% 100% Last Result
1 70% 74% Median
2 3% 3%  
3 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.4% 1.4%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Centrum dla Polski (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centrum dla Polski (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.5% 0.5%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 4 0% 4–5 4–5 3–5 3–6
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 0% 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–5
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–1

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 3% 100%  
4 63% 97% Median
5 32% 35%  
6 2% 2%  
7 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 17% 100%  
3 43% 83% Median
4 40% 40%  
5 0.5% 0.5%  
6 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.2%  
2 0.1% 0.2%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.4% 1.4%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations