Opinion Poll by Opinia24 for Fakty TVN and TVN24, 1–30 April 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) | 0.0% | 28.4% | 26.1–30.9% | 25.5–31.6% | 24.9–32.3% | 23.8–33.5% |
| Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) | 0.0% | 27.0% | 24.8–29.5% | 24.1–30.2% | 23.6–30.8% | 22.5–32.0% |
| Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) | 0.0% | 8.5% | 7.2–10.2% | 6.8–10.6% | 6.5–11.1% | 5.9–11.9% |
| Nowa Lewica (S&D) | 0.0% | 6.2% | 5.1–7.7% | 4.8–8.2% | 4.5–8.5% | 4.1–9.3% |
| Ruch Narodowy (PfE) | 0.0% | 6.2% | 5.1–7.7% | 4.8–8.2% | 4.5–8.5% | 4.1–9.3% |
| Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 5.2% | 4.2–6.6% | 3.9–7.0% | 3.7–7.3% | 3.2–8.0% |
| Polska 2050 (RE) | 0.0% | 4.3% | 3.4–5.6% | 3.2–6.0% | 3.0–6.3% | 2.6–7.0% |
| Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) | 0.0% | 4.2% | 3.3–5.4% | 3.0–5.8% | 2.8–6.1% | 2.4–6.8% |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) | 0.0% | 3.6% | 2.8–4.8% | 2.6–5.2% | 2.4–5.5% | 2.0–6.1% |
| .Nowoczesna (RE) | 0.0% | 1.6% | 1.1–2.5% | 0.9–2.7% | 0.8–2.9% | 0.6–3.4% |
| Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.4–1.4% | 0.3–1.6% | 0.3–1.8% | 0.2–2.2% |
| Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.4–1.4% | 0.3–1.6% | 0.3–1.8% | 0.2–2.2% |
| Centrum dla Polski (*) | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2–0.9% | 0.1–1.1% | 0.1–1.2% | 0.0–1.6% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) | 0 | 17 | 16–18 | 16–19 | 15–19 | 14–20 |
| Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) | 0 | 16 | 13–16 | 13–16 | 13–18 | 12–18 |
| Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) | 0 | 5 | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 3–8 |
| Nowa Lewica (S&D) | 0 | 4 | 3–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| Ruch Narodowy (PfE) | 0 | 3 | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Polska 2050 (RE) | 0 | 2 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 2–4 | 1–4 |
| Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) | 0 | 3 | 2–3 | 2–3 | 1–3 | 1–4 |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) | 0 | 2 | 2–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 | 1–3 |
| .Nowoczesna (RE) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–2 |
| Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Centrum dla Polski (*) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0.6% | 100% | |
| 15 | 3% | 99.4% | |
| 16 | 21% | 97% | |
| 17 | 55% | 76% | Median |
| 18 | 11% | 20% | |
| 19 | 8% | 9% | |
| 20 | 0.9% | 1.1% | |
| 21 | 0.1% | 0.2% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 24 | 0% | 0% |
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0.5% | 100% | |
| 13 | 14% | 99.4% | |
| 14 | 14% | 86% | |
| 15 | 15% | 72% | |
| 16 | 52% | 57% | Median |
| 17 | 2% | 5% | |
| 18 | 3% | 3% | |
| 19 | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| 20 | 0% | 0% |
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 17% | 98% | |
| 5 | 63% | 81% | Median |
| 6 | 15% | 18% | |
| 7 | 2% | 3% | |
| 8 | 1.3% | 1.4% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Nowa Lewica (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 94% | |
| 2 | 0.6% | 94% | |
| 3 | 38% | 93% | |
| 4 | 54% | 55% | Median |
| 5 | 2% | 2% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Ruch Narodowy (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 3% | 100% | |
| 3 | 60% | 97% | Median |
| 4 | 33% | 37% | |
| 5 | 4% | 4% | |
| 6 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 65% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 35% | |
| 2 | 5% | 35% | |
| 3 | 26% | 30% | |
| 4 | 4% | 4% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Polska 2050 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 2% | 100% | |
| 2 | 64% | 98% | Median |
| 3 | 20% | 34% | |
| 4 | 13% | 13% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 3% | 100% | |
| 2 | 39% | 97% | |
| 3 | 56% | 58% | Median |
| 4 | 2% | 2% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 7% | 100% | |
| 2 | 77% | 93% | Median |
| 3 | 16% | 16% | |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
.Nowoczesna (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 29% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 70% | 71% | Median |
| 2 | 1.0% | 1.0% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 3% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 94% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 6% | 6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Centrum dla Polski (*)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centrum dla Polski (*) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.2% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 4–6 | 4–6 | 4–7 | 3–8 |
| Ruch Narodowy (PfE) | 0 | 3 | 0% | 3–4 | 3–4 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–4 | 0–4 |
| Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 2% | 100% | |
| 4 | 17% | 98% | |
| 5 | 63% | 81% | Median |
| 6 | 15% | 18% | |
| 7 | 2% | 3% | |
| 8 | 1.3% | 1.4% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Ruch Narodowy (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 3% | 100% | |
| 3 | 60% | 97% | Median |
| 4 | 33% | 37% | |
| 5 | 4% | 4% | |
| 6 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 65% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 35% | |
| 2 | 5% | 35% | |
| 3 | 26% | 30% | |
| 4 | 4% | 4% | |
| 5 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 3% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Opinia24
- Commissioner(s): Fakty TVN and TVN24
- Fieldwork period: 1–30 April 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 577
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 3.54%