Opinion Poll by Opinia24 for Newsweek, 5–7 May 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 31.3% 29.4–33.3% 28.9–33.8% 28.4–34.3% 27.5–35.3%
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 30.1% 28.3–32.1% 27.8–32.7% 27.3–33.2% 26.4–34.1%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 9.3% 8.2–10.7% 7.9–11.1% 7.7–11.4% 7.1–12.0%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 7.0% 6.1–8.2% 5.8–8.6% 5.6–8.9% 5.2–9.4%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 5.3% 4.4–6.3% 4.2–6.6% 4.0–6.9% 3.6–7.4%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 5.1% 4.3–6.2% 4.1–6.5% 3.9–6.8% 3.6–7.3%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 3.5% 2.8–4.4% 2.6–4.6% 2.5–4.8% 2.2–5.3%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 2.7% 2.2–3.5% 2.0–3.8% 1.9–4.0% 1.6–4.4%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 2.2% 1.7–3.0% 1.6–3.2% 1.4–3.4% 1.2–3.7%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.7% 1.2–2.4% 1.1–2.5% 1.0–2.7% 0.9–3.1%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.4% 0.4–1.5% 0.3–1.8%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.4% 0.4–1.5% 0.3–1.8%
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0.0% 0.2% 0.1–0.6% 0.1–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.0–1.0%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 17 17–18 17–19 17–20 16–21
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 16 15–17 15–17 15–18 15–18
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 5 4–5 4–6 4–6 4–6
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–5 3–5
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 3 2–3 0–3 0–3 0–3
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–2 1–3
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 2 2 2 1–2 0–2
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 1 1 1 1 0–2
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.4% 100%  
16 0.7% 99.6%  
17 56% 98.9% Median
18 36% 43%  
19 3% 7%  
20 3% 4%  
21 0.5% 0.6%  
22 0% 0.1%  
23 0% 0.1%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.1% 100%  
15 49% 99.9%  
16 7% 51% Median
17 42% 44%  
18 3% 3%  
19 0% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 36% 99.9%  
5 59% 64% Median
6 5% 6%  
7 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 38% 100%  
4 58% 62% Median
5 4% 4%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100% Last Result
1 0% 94%  
2 5% 94%  
3 90% 90% Median
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 12% 100%  
3 88% 88% Median
4 0.3% 0.3%  
5 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 41% 100%  
2 58% 59% Median
3 0.5% 0.5%  
4 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 2% 98%  
2 96% 96% Median
3 0.2% 0.2%  
4 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 96% 98% Median
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 10% 100% Last Result
1 90% 90% Median
2 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.1% 1.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.4% 1.4%  
2 0% 0%  

Centrum dla Polski (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centrum dla Polski (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 4 0% 3–4 3–4 3–5 3–5
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 0% 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–3
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 3 0% 2–3 0–3 0–3 0–3
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–1

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 38% 100%  
4 58% 62% Median
5 4% 4%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 12% 100%  
3 88% 88% Median
4 0.3% 0.3%  
5 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100% Last Result
1 0% 94%  
2 5% 94%  
3 90% 90% Median
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.1% 1.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations