Opinion Poll by Instytut Badań Pollster for SE.pl, 7–8 May 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 32.3% 30.5–34.2% 30.0–34.7% 29.6–35.2% 28.7–36.1%
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 28.3% 26.6–30.1% 26.1–30.7% 25.7–31.1% 24.9–32.0%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 6.8% 5.9–7.9% 5.6–8.2% 5.4–8.4% 5.0–9.0%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 5.9% 5.1–7.0% 4.9–7.3% 4.7–7.5% 4.3–8.0%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 5.4% 4.6–6.4% 4.4–6.7% 4.2–6.9% 3.8–7.4%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 5.0% 4.3–6.0% 4.0–6.2% 3.9–6.5% 3.5–7.0%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 4.9% 4.2–5.9% 3.9–6.1% 3.8–6.4% 3.4–6.9%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.2% 3.0–5.4% 2.8–5.9%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 3.3% 2.7–4.2% 2.6–4.4% 2.4–4.6% 2.2–5.0%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.6% 1.2–2.2% 1.1–2.4% 1.0–2.5% 0.8–2.9%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–0.9% 0.2–1.0% 0.2–1.1% 0.1–1.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 18 17–19 17–20 16–20 16–21
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 17 15–18 15–19 15–19 15–20
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 4 3–5 2–5 2–5 2–5
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 3 3 0–3 0–4 0–4
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 2 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–4 2–4
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 1–3
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 2 1–2 1–2 1–3 1–3
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.2% 100%  
16 4% 99.8%  
17 17% 96%  
18 63% 79% Median
19 11% 16%  
20 4% 5%  
21 0.7% 0.9%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.1% 100%  
15 12% 99.9%  
16 35% 88%  
17 41% 53% Median
18 5% 12%  
19 6% 7%  
20 0.6% 0.7%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 5% 100%  
3 12% 95%  
4 60% 82% Median
5 23% 23%  
6 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100% Last Result
1 0% 94%  
2 4% 94%  
3 87% 90% Median
4 3% 3%  
5 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 20% 100% Last Result
1 0% 80%  
2 44% 80% Median
3 35% 36%  
4 1.4% 1.4%  
5 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.1% 100%  
2 45% 99.9%  
3 53% 55% Median
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.1% 100%  
2 35% 99.9%  
3 61% 64% Median
4 4% 4%  
5 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.6% 100%  
2 65% 99.4% Median
3 34% 34%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 38% 100%  
2 60% 62% Median
3 3% 3%  
4 0% 0%  

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 61% 100% Last Result, Median
1 39% 39%  
2 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 0.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Centrum dla Polski (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centrum dla Polski (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 4 0% 3–5 2–5 2–5 2–5
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 0% 2–3 2–3 2–3 2–4
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 2 0% 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 5% 100%  
3 12% 95%  
4 60% 82% Median
5 23% 23%  
6 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.1% 100%  
2 45% 99.9%  
3 53% 55% Median
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 20% 100% Last Result
1 0% 80%  
2 44% 80% Median
3 35% 36%  
4 1.4% 1.4%  
5 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 0.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations