Opinion Poll by Opinia24 for Radio Zet, 23–26 May 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 31.6% 29.7–33.6% 29.2–34.1% 28.7–34.6% 27.8–35.6%
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 30.6% 28.8–32.6% 28.2–33.2% 27.8–33.6% 26.9–34.6%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 7.6% 6.6–8.8% 6.3–9.1% 6.1–9.4% 5.6–10.1%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 6.3% 5.4–7.5% 5.2–7.8% 4.9–8.0% 4.5–8.6%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 5.6% 4.7–6.7% 4.5–7.0% 4.3–7.2% 3.9–7.8%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 4.2% 3.5–5.2% 3.3–5.4% 3.1–5.7% 2.8–6.2%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 3.7% 3.0–4.6% 2.8–4.9% 2.7–5.1% 2.4–5.6%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 3.3% 2.6–4.1% 2.5–4.4% 2.3–4.6% 2.0–5.1%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 2.7% 2.2–3.6% 2.0–3.8% 1.9–4.0% 1.6–4.4%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.7% 1.2–2.4% 1.1–2.5% 1.0–2.7% 0.9–3.1%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.6%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.6%
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0.0% 0.3% 0.2–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.1–0.9% 0.1–1.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 18 16–20 16–20 16–21 16–21
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 18 17–20 17–20 17–21 16–21
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 4 3–5 3–6 3–6 3–6
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 3 3–4 2–4 0–4 0–4
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–3
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 2 2 1–3 1–3 1–3
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 2 1–3 0–3 0–3 0–3
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 1 1–2 0–2 0–2 0–2
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.5% 100%  
16 10% 99.5%  
17 23% 90%  
18 45% 67% Median
19 7% 21%  
20 10% 14%  
21 5% 5%  
22 0% 0%  

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.1% 100%  
16 2% 99.9%  
17 18% 98%  
18 32% 80% Median
19 37% 48%  
20 7% 11%  
21 4% 4%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 16% 100%  
4 38% 84% Median
5 39% 46%  
6 7% 7%  
7 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 4% 100% Last Result
1 0% 96%  
2 5% 96%  
3 76% 90% Median
4 15% 15%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 13% 100%  
3 69% 87% Median
4 18% 19%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 83% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 17%  
2 7% 17%  
3 10% 10%  
4 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 6% 100%  
2 84% 94% Median
3 9% 9%  
4 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100% Last Result
1 7% 94%  
2 67% 88% Median
3 21% 21%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 6% 100% Last Result
1 71% 94% Median
2 23% 23%  
3 0.5% 0.5%  
4 0% 0%  

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 47% 100% Last Result
1 53% 53% Median
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.4% 0.4%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 0.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Centrum dla Polski (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centrum dla Polski (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 4 0% 3–5 3–6 3–6 3–6
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 0% 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–3
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 16% 100%  
4 38% 84% Median
5 39% 46%  
6 7% 7%  
7 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 13% 100%  
3 69% 87% Median
4 18% 19%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 83% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 17%  
2 7% 17%  
3 10% 10%  
4 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.4% 0.4%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations