Opinion Poll by Instytut Badań Pollster for Najwyższy Czas, 5–6 June 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 33.2% 31.2–35.4% 30.6–36.0% 30.1–36.5% 29.1–37.5%
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 28.1% 26.1–30.1% 25.6–30.7% 25.1–31.2% 24.2–32.2%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 7.8% 6.7–9.1% 6.4–9.5% 6.2–9.8% 5.7–10.5%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 6.1% 5.2–7.3% 4.9–7.7% 4.7–8.0% 4.3–8.6%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 5.8% 4.8–6.9% 4.6–7.3% 4.4–7.6% 4.0–8.2%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 4.9% 4.1–6.0% 3.8–6.3% 3.6–6.6% 3.3–7.2%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 4.9% 4.1–6.0% 3.8–6.3% 3.6–6.6% 3.3–7.2%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 3.2% 2.6–4.2% 2.4–4.4% 2.2–4.7% 2.0–5.2%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 2.6% 2.0–3.5% 1.9–3.7% 1.8–4.0% 1.5–4.4%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.6% 1.1–2.3% 1.0–2.5% 0.9–2.7% 0.7–3.0%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0.0% 0.4% 0.2–0.8% 0.2–0.9% 0.1–1.1% 0.1–1.3%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 20 19–23 19–23 18–23 17–23
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 18 16–20 16–20 16–21 15–21
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 5 4–7 4–7 3–7 3–7
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 4 3–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 3–4 3–4 2–5 2–5
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–3 0–4 0–4 0–4
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 1.1% 100%  
18 2% 98.8%  
19 39% 96%  
20 9% 58% Median
21 28% 49%  
22 7% 21%  
23 13% 14%  
24 0.1% 0.3%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.1% 100%  
15 0.8% 99.9%  
16 29% 99.1%  
17 14% 70%  
18 36% 56% Median
19 7% 20%  
20 10% 13%  
21 3% 3%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 3% 100%  
4 36% 97%  
5 38% 61% Median
6 10% 23%  
7 13% 13%  
8 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 7% 100% Last Result
1 0% 93%  
2 0% 93%  
3 38% 93%  
4 54% 55% Median
5 0.7% 1.2%  
6 0.5% 0.5%  
7 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 4% 100%  
3 55% 96% Median
4 37% 41%  
5 3% 3%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 56% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 44%  
2 0% 44%  
3 42% 44%  
4 1.4% 1.5%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 55% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 45%  
2 0.1% 45%  
3 39% 45%  
4 6% 6%  
5 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.2%  
2 0% 0.2%  
3 0.2% 0.2%  
4 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 42% 100% Last Result
1 57% 58% Median
2 0.8% 0.8%  
3 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.2% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.8% 0.8%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.3% 0.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Centrum dla Polski (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centrum dla Polski (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 5 0% 4–7 4–7 3–7 3–7
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 0% 3–4 3–4 2–5 2–5
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0–3 0–4 0–4 0–4
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–1

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 3% 100%  
4 36% 97%  
5 38% 61% Median
6 10% 23%  
7 13% 13%  
8 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 4% 100%  
3 55% 96% Median
4 37% 41%  
5 3% 3%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 55% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 45%  
2 0.1% 45%  
3 39% 45%  
4 6% 6%  
5 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.2% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.8% 0.8%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations