Opinion Poll by Opinia24, 9–12 June 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 30.3% 28.5–32.3% 27.9–32.8% 27.5–33.3% 26.6–34.3%
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 27.6% 25.8–29.5% 25.3–30.1% 24.8–30.5% 24.0–31.5%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 8.4% 7.3–9.7% 7.0–10.0% 6.8–10.3% 6.3–11.0%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 7.2% 6.3–8.4% 6.0–8.8% 5.8–9.1% 5.3–9.7%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 6.4% 5.5–7.5% 5.2–7.9% 5.0–8.1% 4.6–8.7%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 6.2% 5.3–7.3% 5.0–7.6% 4.8–7.9% 4.4–8.5%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 4.8% 4.0–5.8% 3.8–6.1% 3.6–6.4% 3.3–6.9%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 2.8% 2.3–3.7% 2.1–3.9% 2.0–4.1% 1.7–4.5%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 2.3% 1.8–3.1% 1.6–3.3% 1.5–3.5% 1.3–3.9%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.5% 1.1–2.1% 1.0–2.3% 0.9–2.5% 0.7–2.8%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.6%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.6%
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0.0% 0.3% 0.2–0.7% 0.1–0.8% 0.1–0.9% 0.1–1.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 19 17–20 16–20 16–20 16–20
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 17 16–19 16–19 16–19 15–20
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–7
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 3 3–4 3–5 3–5 0–5
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 2–5
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Centrum dla Polski (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.4% 100%  
16 9% 99.6%  
17 21% 90%  
18 16% 70%  
19 35% 53% Median
20 19% 19%  
21 0.4% 0.4%  
22 0% 0%  

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.2% 100%  
15 1.0% 99.8%  
16 18% 98.8%  
17 35% 81% Median
18 35% 46%  
19 10% 11%  
20 1.1% 1.4%  
21 0.3% 0.3%  
22 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.4% 100%  
4 31% 99.6%  
5 52% 68% Median
6 16% 16%  
7 0.6% 0.6%  
8 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 17% 99.9%  
4 68% 83% Median
5 15% 15%  
6 0.3% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.1% 100% Last Result
1 0% 98.9%  
2 0% 98.9%  
3 55% 98.9% Median
4 38% 44%  
5 5% 5%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.7% 100%  
3 51% 99.3% Median
4 46% 48%  
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 73% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 27%  
2 4% 27%  
3 22% 24%  
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 33% 100% Last Result
1 67% 67% Median
2 0.3% 0.3%  
3 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.5% 0.5%  
2 0% 0%  

Centrum dla Polski (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Centrum dla Polski (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 5 0% 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–7
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 0% 3–4 3–4 3–4 2–5
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–1

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.4% 100%  
4 31% 99.6%  
5 52% 68% Median
6 16% 16%  
7 0.6% 0.6%  
8 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.7% 100%  
3 51% 99.3% Median
4 46% 48%  
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 73% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 27%  
2 4% 27%  
3 22% 24%  
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations