Opinion Poll by Opinia24, 7–9 July 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 30.8% 28.9–32.8% 28.4–33.3% 28.0–33.8% 27.1–34.8%
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 28.1% 26.3–30.0% 25.7–30.5% 25.3–31.0% 24.4–32.0%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 9.0% 7.9–10.3% 7.6–10.7% 7.4–11.1% 6.9–11.7%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 6.6% 5.7–7.8% 5.4–8.1% 5.2–8.4% 4.8–9.0%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 5.9% 5.0–7.0% 4.8–7.3% 4.6–7.6% 4.2–8.1%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 5.3% 4.4–6.3% 4.2–6.6% 4.0–6.9% 3.6–7.4%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 4.9% 4.1–6.0% 3.9–6.3% 3.7–6.5% 3.4–7.0%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 4.1% 3.4–5.1% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.6% 2.7–6.1%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 1.9% 1.4–2.6% 1.3–2.8% 1.2–3.0% 1.0–3.4%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.6% 1.2–2.2% 1.1–2.4% 1.0–2.6% 0.8–2.9%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.6%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 18 17–20 17–20 16–22 15–22
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 18 17–20 16–20 16–20 16–21
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 5 4–6 4–7 4–7 4–7
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 3 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–5
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 3 0–3 0–4 0–4 0–4
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 3 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–3
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 1.3% 100%  
16 2% 98.7%  
17 17% 96%  
18 51% 80% Median
19 12% 28%  
20 12% 17%  
21 2% 4%  
22 3% 3%  
23 0% 0%  

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.5% 100%  
16 7% 99.5%  
17 42% 92%  
18 25% 50% Median
19 9% 25%  
20 13% 15%  
21 2% 2%  
22 0.3% 0.4%  
23 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 15% 100%  
5 62% 85% Median
6 18% 23%  
7 5% 6%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.2% 100%  
3 13% 99.8%  
4 71% 87% Median
5 16% 16%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 15% 100% Last Result
1 0% 85%  
2 0.2% 85%  
3 60% 85% Median
4 25% 25%  
5 0.8% 0.8%  
6 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 18% 100% Last Result
1 0% 82%  
2 1.0% 82%  
3 72% 81% Median
4 9% 9%  
5 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 45% 100% Last Result
1 0% 55%  
2 0% 55%  
3 54% 55% Median
4 1.3% 1.3%  
5 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 8%  
2 0.3% 8%  
3 8% 8%  
4 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 58% 100% Last Result, Median
1 42% 42%  
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.2% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.8% 0.8%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.1% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.9% 0.9%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 5 0% 4–6 4–7 4–7 4–7
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 4 0% 3–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0–3 0–3 0–3
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–1

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 15% 100%  
5 62% 85% Median
6 18% 23%  
7 5% 6%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.2% 100%  
3 13% 99.8%  
4 71% 87% Median
5 16% 16%  
6 0.2% 0.2%  
7 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 92% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 8%  
2 0.3% 8%  
3 8% 8%  
4 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.2% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.8% 0.8%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations