Opinion Poll by Ipsos for TVP Info, 24–25 July 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 30.1% 28.2–32.1% 27.7–32.6% 27.2–33.1% 26.4–34.1%
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 23.4% 21.7–25.3% 21.2–25.8% 20.8–26.3% 20.0–27.2%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 8.7% 7.6–10.0% 7.3–10.4% 7.1–10.7% 6.6–11.4%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 6.5% 5.5–7.6% 5.3–7.9% 5.0–8.2% 4.6–8.8%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 6.5% 5.5–7.6% 5.3–7.9% 5.0–8.2% 4.6–8.8%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 6.3% 5.4–7.5% 5.2–7.8% 5.0–8.1% 4.5–8.7%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 5.4% 4.5–6.4% 4.3–6.8% 4.1–7.0% 3.7–7.6%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 5.4% 4.5–6.4% 4.3–6.8% 4.1–7.0% 3.7–7.6%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 4.3% 3.6–5.3% 3.4–5.6% 3.2–5.8% 2.9–6.3%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.3% 0.9–1.9% 0.8–2.1% 0.7–2.3% 0.6–2.6%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.2% 0.2–1.5%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.2% 0.2–1.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 18 17–19 16–19 16–20 15–20
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 15 13–16 13–16 13–16 12–17
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 5 4–6 4–6 4–7 3–7
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 3 3–4 3–4 0–5 0–5
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 3 3–4 3–5 3–5 0–5
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 3–4 3–5 3–5 2–5
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 3 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–4
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.3% 100%  
15 1.0% 99.7%  
16 8% 98.7%  
17 18% 91%  
18 31% 73% Median
19 37% 42%  
20 4% 4%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 1.5% 100%  
13 10% 98%  
14 16% 88%  
15 27% 72% Median
16 44% 46%  
17 1.5% 2%  
18 0.3% 0.4%  
19 0.1% 0.1%  
20 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.8% 100%  
4 28% 99.2%  
5 46% 71% Median
6 22% 25%  
7 2% 3%  
8 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100% Last Result
1 0% 97%  
2 0.3% 97%  
3 70% 97% Median
4 23% 27%  
5 5% 5%  
6 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 0% 98%  
2 0.2% 98%  
3 70% 98% Median
4 23% 28%  
5 5% 5%  
6 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 2% 100%  
3 57% 98% Median
4 32% 41%  
5 9% 9%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 52% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 48%  
2 0.7% 48%  
3 45% 47%  
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 21% 100% Last Result
1 0% 79%  
2 8% 79%  
3 40% 71% Median
4 31% 31%  
5 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 81% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 19%  
2 2% 19%  
3 16% 17%  
4 0.5% 0.5%  
5 0% 0%  

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 74% 100% Last Result, Median
1 26% 26%  
2 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.5% 0.5%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.5% 0.5%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 5 0% 4–6 4–6 4–7 3–7
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 3 0% 3–4 3–5 3–5 0–5
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 0% 3–4 3–5 3–5 2–5
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.8% 100%  
4 28% 99.2%  
5 46% 71% Median
6 22% 25%  
7 2% 3%  
8 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 0% 98%  
2 0.2% 98%  
3 70% 98% Median
4 23% 28%  
5 5% 5%  
6 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 2% 100%  
3 57% 98% Median
4 32% 41%  
5 9% 9%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.5% 0.5%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations