Opinion Poll by United Surveys for WP.pl, 25–27 July 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 29.8% 27.9–31.7% 27.4–32.3% 27.0–32.8% 26.1–33.7%
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 24.7% 23.0–26.6% 22.5–27.1% 22.1–27.6% 21.3–28.5%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 10.5% 9.3–11.9% 9.0–12.3% 8.7–12.7% 8.2–13.3%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 7.8% 6.8–9.0% 6.5–9.4% 6.2–9.7% 5.8–10.3%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 7.1% 6.1–8.2% 5.8–8.6% 5.6–8.9% 5.2–9.5%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 5.7% 4.8–6.8% 4.6–7.1% 4.4–7.3% 4.0–7.9%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 4.3% 3.6–5.3% 3.4–5.6% 3.2–5.8% 2.9–6.3%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 3.9% 3.2–4.8% 3.0–5.1% 2.8–5.3% 2.5–5.8%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.8% 3.1–4.7% 2.9–5.0% 2.7–5.2% 2.5–5.7%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.4% 1.0–2.0% 0.9–2.2% 0.8–2.3% 0.7–2.7%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.2% 0.2–1.5%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.5% 0.3–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.2–1.2% 0.2–1.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 18 17–18 17–19 16–19 16–20
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 17 15–17 14–17 14–17 14–19
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 5 5–6 5–7 5–7 5–8
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 5 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–6
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 4 4 3–5 3–5 3–5
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 3 3 3–4 0–4 0–4
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–3
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–3
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.2% 100%  
16 4% 99.8%  
17 7% 96%  
18 82% 88% Median
19 4% 6%  
20 2% 2%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0.1% 100%  
14 5% 99.9%  
15 13% 95%  
16 7% 82%  
17 73% 75% Median
18 1.1% 2%  
19 0.8% 0.8%  
20 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 74% 100% Median
6 16% 26%  
7 8% 10%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.2% 100%  
4 12% 99.8%  
5 87% 88% Median
6 0.7% 0.7%  
7 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 5% 99.9%  
4 86% 95% Median
5 9% 9%  
6 0.4% 0.4%  
7 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100% Last Result
1 0% 97%  
2 0% 97%  
3 90% 97% Median
4 7% 7%  
5 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 93% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 7%  
2 0% 7%  
3 7% 7%  
4 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.4%  
2 0% 0.4%  
3 0.4% 0.4%  
4 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 94% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 6%  
2 0.1% 6%  
3 6% 6%  
4 0% 0%  

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 13% 100% Last Result
1 87% 87% Median
2 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.1% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.9% 0.9%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 5 0% 5–6 5–7 5–7 5–8
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 4–6
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0–3 0–3 0–3
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–1

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 74% 100% Median
6 16% 26%  
7 8% 10%  
8 2% 2%  
9 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.2% 100%  
4 12% 99.8%  
5 87% 88% Median
6 0.7% 0.7%  
7 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 94% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 6%  
2 0.1% 6%  
3 6% 6%  
4 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.1% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.9% 0.9%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations