Opinion Poll by Instytut Badań Pollster for SE.pl, 25–28 July 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 31.9% 30.1–33.8% 29.6–34.3% 29.1–34.8% 28.3–35.7%
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 29.2% 27.5–31.1% 27.0–31.6% 26.6–32.1% 25.7–33.0%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 6.9% 6.0–8.0% 5.7–8.3% 5.5–8.6% 5.1–9.1%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 6.2% 5.3–7.3% 5.1–7.6% 4.9–7.8% 4.5–8.4%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 5.1% 4.3–6.1% 4.1–6.3% 3.9–6.6% 3.6–7.1%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 4.9% 4.1–5.8% 3.9–6.1% 3.7–6.4% 3.4–6.8%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 4.8% 4.0–5.7% 3.8–6.0% 3.6–6.2% 3.3–6.7%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 4.4% 3.7–5.3% 3.5–5.6% 3.3–5.8% 3.0–6.3%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 3.2% 2.6–4.0% 2.4–4.2% 2.3–4.4% 2.0–4.8%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.6% 1.2–2.3% 1.1–2.4% 1.0–2.6% 0.9–2.9%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.6%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 20 19–21 18–21 18–22 17–24
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 19 17–21 17–21 16–22 16–22
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 4 4–5 3–5 3–5 3–6
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 3 3–4 3–4 0–4 0–5
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–3
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–3
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.1% 100%  
17 2% 99.9%  
18 8% 98%  
19 20% 91%  
20 56% 71% Median
21 11% 15%  
22 3% 4%  
23 0.2% 1.4%  
24 1.2% 1.2%  
25 0% 0%  

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 4% 100%  
17 30% 96%  
18 7% 66%  
19 10% 59% Median
20 12% 49%  
21 32% 36%  
22 4% 5%  
23 0.3% 0.3%  
24 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 8% 100%  
4 79% 92% Median
5 12% 13%  
6 2% 2%  
7 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100% Last Result
1 0% 97%  
2 0% 97%  
3 58% 97% Median
4 38% 39%  
5 1.0% 1.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 14% 100%  
3 70% 86% Median
4 16% 16%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 53% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 47%  
2 0.3% 47%  
3 45% 47%  
4 1.2% 1.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 58% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 42%  
2 0.1% 42%  
3 41% 42%  
4 0.4% 0.4%  
5 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 89% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 11%  
2 0.3% 11%  
3 10% 11%  
4 0.3% 0.3%  
5 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 38% 100% Last Result
1 62% 62% Median
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.4% 0.4%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.2% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.8% 0.8%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 4 0% 4–5 3–5 3–5 3–6
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 0% 2–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–3
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 8% 100%  
4 79% 92% Median
5 12% 13%  
6 2% 2%  
7 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 14% 100%  
3 70% 86% Median
4 16% 16%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 89% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 11%  
2 0.3% 11%  
3 10% 11%  
4 0.3% 0.3%  
5 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.4% 0.4%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations