Opinion Poll by Instytut Badań Pollster for SE.pl, 8–9 August 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 30.9% 29.1–32.8% 28.6–33.4% 28.1–33.9% 27.3–34.8%
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 29.1% 27.3–31.0% 26.8–31.6% 26.4–32.0% 25.6–32.9%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 7.4% 6.4–8.5% 6.1–8.9% 5.9–9.1% 5.5–9.7%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 7.0% 6.0–8.1% 5.8–8.4% 5.5–8.7% 5.1–9.3%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 5.4% 4.6–6.4% 4.3–6.7% 4.1–7.0% 3.8–7.5%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 5.2% 4.4–6.2% 4.1–6.5% 4.0–6.7% 3.6–7.2%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 4.9% 4.1–5.9% 3.9–6.1% 3.7–6.4% 3.4–6.9%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 4.7% 3.9–5.6% 3.7–5.9% 3.5–6.2% 3.2–6.7%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 2.4% 1.9–3.1% 1.7–3.3% 1.6–3.5% 1.4–3.9%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.6% 1.2–2.2% 1.1–2.4% 1.0–2.6% 0.8–2.9%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 18 18–21 17–21 17–21 16–21
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 19 17–21 16–21 16–21 16–21
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 5 4–5 4–5 4–5 3–6
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–5
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 3–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 3 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–2 0–3 0–3 0–3
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.1% 100%  
16 2% 99.9%  
17 3% 98%  
18 49% 95% Median
19 5% 45%  
20 31% 41%  
21 10% 10%  
22 0% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.5% 100%  
16 7% 99.5%  
17 5% 93%  
18 16% 88%  
19 48% 73% Median
20 5% 24%  
21 19% 19%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 2% 100%  
4 23% 98%  
5 74% 76% Median
6 2% 2%  
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.1% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.9%  
2 0% 99.9%  
3 12% 99.9%  
4 86% 88% Median
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 8% 100%  
3 76% 92% Median
4 16% 16%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 69% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 31%  
2 0.1% 31%  
3 29% 30%  
4 2% 2%  
5 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 49% 100% Last Result
1 0% 51%  
2 0.1% 51%  
3 50% 51% Median
4 0.9% 0.9%  
5 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 89% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 11%  
2 5% 11%  
3 5% 5%  
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 36% 100% Last Result
1 64% 64% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 3–6
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 0% 3–4 2–4 2–4 2–4
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0–2 0–3 0–3 0–3
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 2% 100%  
4 23% 98%  
5 74% 76% Median
6 2% 2%  
7 0.2% 0.2%  
8 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 8% 100%  
3 76% 92% Median
4 16% 16%  
5 0.1% 0.1%  
6 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 89% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 11%  
2 5% 11%  
3 5% 5%  
4 0.2% 0.2%  
5 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations