Opinion Poll by OGB, 6–13 August 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 30.6% 28.7–32.5% 28.2–33.0% 27.8–33.5% 26.9–34.4%
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 30.4% 28.5–32.3% 28.0–32.8% 27.6–33.3% 26.7–34.2%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 8.9% 7.8–10.2% 7.5–10.5% 7.3–10.8% 6.8–11.5%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 6.5% 5.6–7.6% 5.3–7.9% 5.1–8.2% 4.7–8.8%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 5.3% 4.5–6.3% 4.3–6.6% 4.1–6.9% 3.7–7.4%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.3% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.0%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 3.6% 2.9–4.5% 2.8–4.7% 2.6–5.0% 2.3–5.4%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 3.4% 2.8–4.3% 2.6–4.5% 2.4–4.7% 2.2–5.2%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.3% 2.7–4.1% 2.5–4.4% 2.3–4.6% 2.1–5.0%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.7% 1.3–2.4% 1.2–2.5% 1.1–2.7% 0.9–3.1%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 19 18–20 17–21 17–21 16–21
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 20 19–21 19–21 19–22 17–23
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 5 5–6 5–6 5–6 4–7
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 4 4 4–5 3–5 3–5
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 3 0–3 0–4 0–4 0–4
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 3 0–3 0–3 0–4 0–4
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0–3
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0–3
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.7% 100%  
17 5% 99.2%  
18 38% 94%  
19 30% 56% Median
20 20% 26%  
21 6% 6%  
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0.7% 100%  
18 1.2% 99.3%  
19 48% 98%  
20 33% 50% Median
21 14% 17%  
22 1.5% 3%  
23 1.1% 1.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 2% 100%  
5 57% 98% Median
6 40% 41%  
7 1.1% 1.2%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.2% 100%  
3 3% 99.8%  
4 90% 96% Median
5 6% 7%  
6 0.3% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 20% 100% Last Result
1 0% 80%  
2 0% 80%  
3 71% 80% Median
4 9% 9%  
5 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 46% 100% Last Result
1 0% 54%  
2 0% 54%  
3 50% 54% Median
4 4% 4%  
5 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.4% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.6%  
2 0% 0.6%  
3 0.6% 0.6%  
4 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.3%  
2 0% 0.3%  
3 0.3% 0.3%  
4 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.5%  
2 0% 0.5%  
3 0.5% 0.5%  
4 0% 0%  

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 16% 100% Last Result
1 84% 84% Median
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.3% 1.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 2% 2%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 5 0% 5–6 5–6 5–6 4–7
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 4 0% 4 4–5 3–5 3–5
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–3
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–1

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 2% 100%  
5 57% 98% Median
6 40% 41%  
7 1.1% 1.2%  
8 0.1% 0.1%  
9 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.2% 100%  
3 3% 99.8%  
4 90% 96% Median
5 6% 7%  
6 0.3% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.5%  
2 0% 0.5%  
3 0.5% 0.5%  
4 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.3% 1.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations