Opinion Poll by United Surveys for SE.pl, 13–16 August 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 30.2% 28.3–32.2% 27.7–32.8% 27.3–33.2% 26.4–34.2%
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 28.2% 26.3–30.2% 25.8–30.7% 25.4–31.2% 24.5–32.2%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 11.0% 9.8–12.5% 9.4–12.9% 9.1–13.2% 8.6–13.9%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 8.0% 7.0–9.3% 6.7–9.7% 6.4–10.0% 6.0–10.6%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 6.1% 5.2–7.2% 4.9–7.5% 4.7–7.8% 4.3–8.4%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 4.0% 3.2–4.9% 3.0–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.6–5.9%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.4% 2.8–4.3% 2.6–4.6% 2.4–4.8% 2.1–5.3%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 3.4% 2.8–4.3% 2.6–4.6% 2.4–4.8% 2.1–5.3%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 2.9% 2.3–3.7% 2.1–3.9% 2.0–4.2% 1.7–4.6%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.5% 1.1–2.2% 1.0–2.4% 0.9–2.6% 0.7–2.9%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 18 17–20 17–21 16–21 16–22
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 18 17–20 17–20 17–21 16–21
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 7 6–7 6–8 5–8 5–9
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 3–7
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 3 3–4 0–4 0–5 0–5
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–3
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0–3 0–3
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 0 0 0 0–3 0–3
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–2
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.3% 100%  
16 4% 99.7%  
17 9% 95%  
18 43% 86% Median
19 22% 43%  
20 13% 21%  
21 6% 7%  
22 0.9% 1.2%  
23 0.2% 0.2%  
24 0% 0%  

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.1% 100%  
16 2% 99.9%  
17 38% 98%  
18 27% 60% Median
19 18% 33%  
20 11% 15%  
21 4% 4%  
22 0.4% 0.4%  
23 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 4% 100%  
6 23% 96%  
7 66% 73% Median
8 6% 8%  
9 1.0% 1.3%  
10 0.4% 0.4%  
11 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 2% 100%  
4 38% 98%  
5 50% 60% Median
6 10% 10%  
7 0.8% 0.8%  
8 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 8% 100% Last Result
1 0% 92%  
2 0% 92%  
3 55% 92% Median
4 33% 37%  
5 4% 4%  
6 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 75% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 25%  
2 0% 25%  
3 25% 25%  
4 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 3%  
2 0% 3%  
3 3% 3%  
4 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 95% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 5%  
2 0% 5%  
3 5% 5%  
4 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 39% 100% Last Result
1 59% 61% Median
2 2% 2%  
3 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 93% 100% Last Result, Median
1 7% 7%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 96% 100% Last Result, Median
1 4% 4%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 7 0% 6–7 6–8 5–8 5–9
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 5 0% 4–6 4–6 4–6 3–7
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0 0–3 0–3
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0–1 0–1 0–1

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 4% 100%  
6 23% 96%  
7 66% 73% Median
8 6% 8%  
9 1.0% 1.3%  
10 0.4% 0.4%  
11 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 2% 100%  
4 38% 98%  
5 50% 60% Median
6 10% 10%  
7 0.8% 0.8%  
8 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 3%  
2 0% 3%  
3 3% 3%  
4 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 93% 100% Last Result, Median
1 7% 7%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations