Opinion Poll by Research Partner, 22–25 August 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 35.9% 33.9–37.9% 33.3–38.5% 32.8–39.0% 31.9–40.0%
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 28.1% 26.2–30.0% 25.7–30.6% 25.2–31.1% 24.4–32.0%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 7.5% 6.4–8.7% 6.2–9.0% 5.9–9.4% 5.5–10.0%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 7.2% 6.2–8.5% 6.0–8.8% 5.7–9.1% 5.3–9.7%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 5.5% 4.6–6.6% 4.4–6.9% 4.2–7.2% 3.8–7.7%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 3.9% 3.2–4.9% 3.0–5.2% 2.9–5.4% 2.5–5.9%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 3.3% 2.6–4.2% 2.5–4.4% 2.3–4.7% 2.0–5.1%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.3% 2.6–4.2% 2.5–4.4% 2.3–4.7% 2.0–5.1%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 2.2% 1.7–3.0% 1.5–3.2% 1.4–3.4% 1.2–3.8%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.5% 1.1–2.2% 1.0–2.4% 0.9–2.6% 0.7–2.9%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 22 21–23 20–23 20–23 19–24
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 18 17–19 17–20 17–20 16–21
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 3–6
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 4 4–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 2–4
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–3
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0–1 0–1
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0% 100%  
18 0% 100%  
19 0.9% 100%  
20 6% 99.1%  
21 30% 93%  
22 41% 63% Median
23 20% 22%  
24 1.4% 1.4%  
25 0.1% 0.1%  
26 0% 0%  

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.8% 99.9%  
17 9% 99.1%  
18 42% 90% Median
19 42% 48%  
20 5% 6%  
21 0.8% 0.9%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.7% 100%  
4 70% 99.3% Median
5 28% 29%  
6 1.1% 1.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 8% 100%  
4 56% 92% Median
5 35% 36%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 2% 100%  
3 55% 98% Median
4 42% 42%  
5 0.5% 0.5%  
6 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 91% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 9%  
2 0% 9%  
3 9% 9%  
4 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.3%  
2 0% 0.3%  
3 0.3% 0.3%  
4 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.4%  
2 0% 0.4%  
3 0.4% 0.4%  
4 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 53% 100% Last Result, Median
1 47% 47%  
2 0.2% 0.2%  
3 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 3% 3%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 1.3% 1.3%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 4 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 3–6
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 0% 3–4 3–4 3–4 2–4
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0–1 0–1
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.7% 100%  
4 70% 99.3% Median
5 28% 29%  
6 1.1% 1.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 2% 100%  
3 55% 98% Median
4 42% 42%  
5 0.5% 0.5%  
6 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 3% 3%  
2 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.4%  
2 0% 0.4%  
3 0.4% 0.4%  
4 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations