Opinion Poll by IBRiS for Onet, 29–30 August 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 30.3% 28.5–32.2% 28.0–32.7% 27.6–33.2% 26.7–34.1%
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 27.8% 26.0–29.6% 25.5–30.1% 25.1–30.6% 24.3–31.5%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 8.9% 7.8–10.1% 7.5–10.5% 7.3–10.8% 6.8–11.4%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 8.7% 7.6–9.9% 7.3–10.3% 7.1–10.6% 6.6–11.2%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 6.5% 5.6–7.6% 5.4–7.9% 5.2–8.2% 4.8–8.8%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 4.5% 3.7–5.4% 3.6–5.7% 3.4–5.9% 3.0–6.4%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 4.4% 3.7–5.3% 3.5–5.6% 3.3–5.8% 3.0–6.3%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 3.6% 3.0–4.5% 2.8–4.7% 2.6–4.9% 2.3–5.4%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 2.4% 1.9–3.2% 1.8–3.4% 1.6–3.6% 1.4–4.0%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.6% 1.2–2.2% 1.1–2.4% 1.0–2.5% 0.8–2.9%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.5%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 19 18–19 17–20 17–20 17–20
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 19 17–19 17–20 17–20 16–20
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 6 5–6 5–6 5–7 4–7
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 5 5 4–5 4–5 4–6
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 4 4 4–5 4–5 3–5
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0–3
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–3
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.1% 100%  
17 6% 99.9%  
18 13% 93%  
19 73% 80% Median
20 7% 7%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.1% 100%  
16 0.7% 99.9%  
17 10% 99.2%  
18 9% 89%  
19 73% 80% Median
20 7% 7%  
21 0% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.7% 100%  
5 22% 99.3%  
6 73% 77% Median
7 3% 3%  
8 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 7% 100%  
5 92% 93% Median
6 1.4% 1.4%  
7 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 2% 100%  
4 90% 98% Median
5 8% 8%  
6 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 2%  
2 0% 2%  
3 1.4% 1.5%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 88% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 12%  
2 0% 12%  
3 12% 12%  
4 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 77% 100% Last Result, Median
1 23% 23%  
2 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 6 0% 5–6 5–6 5–7 4–7
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 4 0% 4 4–5 4–5 3–5
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–3
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0.7% 100%  
5 22% 99.3%  
6 73% 77% Median
7 3% 3%  
8 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 2% 100%  
4 90% 98% Median
5 8% 8%  
6 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 2%  
2 0% 2%  
3 1.4% 1.5%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations