Opinion Poll by United Surveys for WP.pl, 28 August–1 September 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 32.1% 30.2–34.2% 29.6–34.7% 29.1–35.2% 28.2–36.2%
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 27.4% 25.5–29.3% 25.0–29.9% 24.5–30.4% 23.7–31.3%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 8.4% 7.3–9.7% 7.0–10.1% 6.8–10.4% 6.3–11.1%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 8.2% 7.1–9.5% 6.8–9.8% 6.6–10.2% 6.1–10.8%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 6.2% 5.3–7.4% 5.0–7.7% 4.8–8.0% 4.4–8.6%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 4.3% 3.6–5.3% 3.4–5.6% 3.2–5.9% 2.9–6.4%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 3.8% 3.1–4.7% 2.9–5.0% 2.7–5.2% 2.4–5.7%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.5% 2.9–4.5% 2.7–4.7% 2.5–5.0% 2.2–5.4%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 3.4% 2.8–4.3% 2.6–4.6% 2.4–4.8% 2.1–5.3%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.6% 1.1–2.2% 1.0–2.4% 0.9–2.6% 0.8–3.0%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.6% 0.3–1.0% 0.3–1.2% 0.2–1.3% 0.2–1.6%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.6% 0.3–1.0% 0.3–1.2% 0.2–1.3% 0.2–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 20 18–20 18–21 18–21 17–22
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 17 17–19 16–19 16–20 16–20
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 5 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–7
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 5 4–5 4–5 4–6 3–6
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–5 3–5
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 3 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–3
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 0 0 0 0–3 0–3
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 0 0 0 0 0–3
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.1% 100%  
17 2% 99.9%  
18 15% 98%  
19 9% 83%  
20 67% 74% Median
21 6% 7%  
22 1.1% 1.2%  
23 0% 0%  

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.4% 100%  
16 5% 99.6%  
17 72% 95% Median
18 11% 22%  
19 8% 11%  
20 3% 4%  
21 0.2% 0.2%  
22 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 38% 99.9%  
5 30% 62% Median
6 32% 33%  
7 0.6% 0.6%  
8 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 1.1% 100%  
4 46% 98.9%  
5 49% 53% Median
6 4% 4%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.3% 100%  
3 15% 99.7%  
4 81% 84% Median
5 3% 4%  
6 0.3% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 44% 100% Last Result
1 0% 56%  
2 0% 56%  
3 55% 56% Median
4 0.5% 0.5%  
5 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 97% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 3%  
2 0% 3%  
3 3% 3%  
4 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.3%  
2 0% 0.3%  
3 0.3% 0.3%  
4 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.3% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.7%  
2 0% 0.7%  
3 0.7% 0.7%  
4 0% 0%  

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 13% 100% Last Result
1 86% 87% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.4% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.6% 0.6%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 5 0% 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–7
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 4 0% 3–4 3–4 3–5 3–5
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–1

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.1% 100%  
4 38% 99.9%  
5 30% 62% Median
6 32% 33%  
7 0.6% 0.6%  
8 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.3% 100%  
3 15% 99.7%  
4 81% 84% Median
5 3% 4%  
6 0.3% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.7% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.3%  
2 0% 0.3%  
3 0.3% 0.3%  
4 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.4% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.6% 0.6%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations