Opinion Poll by Opinia24, 1–3 September 2025
Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information
Voting Intentions
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Poll Result | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) | 0.0% | 30.8% | 28.9–32.8% | 28.3–33.3% | 27.9–33.8% | 27.0–34.8% |
| Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) | 0.0% | 28.0% | 26.1–29.9% | 25.6–30.5% | 25.2–31.0% | 24.3–31.9% |
| Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) | 0.0% | 9.3% | 8.2–10.7% | 7.9–11.0% | 7.6–11.4% | 7.1–12.0% |
| Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) | 0.0% | 7.2% | 6.2–8.4% | 5.9–8.7% | 5.7–9.0% | 5.3–9.6% |
| Ruch Narodowy (PfE) | 0.0% | 6.9% | 5.9–8.0% | 5.6–8.4% | 5.4–8.7% | 5.0–9.3% |
| Nowa Lewica (S&D) | 0.0% | 6.0% | 5.1–7.1% | 4.9–7.4% | 4.6–7.7% | 4.3–8.3% |
| Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) | 0.0% | 4.2% | 3.4–5.2% | 3.2–5.4% | 3.1–5.7% | 2.8–6.2% |
| Polska 2050 (RE) | 0.0% | 3.1% | 2.5–4.0% | 2.3–4.2% | 2.2–4.4% | 1.9–4.9% |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) | 0.0% | 1.6% | 1.2–2.3% | 1.1–2.5% | 1.0–2.6% | 0.8–3.0% |
| .Nowoczesna (RE) | 0.0% | 1.5% | 1.1–2.1% | 1.0–2.3% | 0.9–2.5% | 0.7–2.9% |
| Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.4–1.3% | 0.3–1.4% | 0.2–1.7% |
| Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4–1.1% | 0.4–1.3% | 0.3–1.4% | 0.2–1.7% |
Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.
Seats
Confidence Intervals
| Party | Last Result | Median | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) | 0 | 18 | 16–20 | 16–20 | 16–20 | 15–21 |
| Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) | 0 | 17 | 16–19 | 16–19 | 16–20 | 15–21 |
| Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) | 0 | 5 | 5–6 | 5–7 | 4–7 | 4–8 |
| Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) | 0 | 4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 0–5 | 0–6 |
| Ruch Narodowy (PfE) | 0 | 4 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 2–5 |
| Nowa Lewica (S&D) | 0 | 3 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–4 | 0–5 |
| Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| Polska 2050 (RE) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| .Nowoczesna (RE) | 0 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
| Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 1.3% | 100% | |
| 16 | 10% | 98.7% | |
| 17 | 22% | 88% | |
| 18 | 34% | 67% | Median |
| 19 | 22% | 33% | |
| 20 | 10% | 11% | |
| 21 | 1.3% | 1.4% | |
| 22 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 23 | 0% | 0% |
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 0% | 100% | |
| 5 | 0% | 100% | |
| 6 | 0% | 100% | |
| 7 | 0% | 100% | |
| 8 | 0% | 100% | |
| 9 | 0% | 100% | |
| 10 | 0% | 100% | |
| 11 | 0% | 100% | |
| 12 | 0% | 100% | |
| 13 | 0% | 100% | |
| 14 | 0% | 100% | |
| 15 | 2% | 100% | |
| 16 | 11% | 98% | |
| 17 | 40% | 87% | Median |
| 18 | 27% | 47% | |
| 19 | 15% | 20% | |
| 20 | 4% | 5% | |
| 21 | 0.6% | 0.7% | |
| 22 | 0% | 0% |
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 3% | 100% | |
| 5 | 51% | 97% | Median |
| 6 | 37% | 46% | |
| 7 | 8% | 9% | |
| 8 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 97% | |
| 2 | 0.1% | 97% | |
| 3 | 20% | 97% | |
| 4 | 54% | 77% | Median |
| 5 | 23% | 23% | |
| 6 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Ruch Narodowy (PfE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 3 | 26% | 99.2% | |
| 4 | 44% | 74% | Median |
| 5 | 30% | 30% | |
| 6 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Nowa Lewica (S&D)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 22% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 78% | |
| 2 | 1.2% | 78% | |
| 3 | 57% | 77% | Median |
| 4 | 20% | 20% | |
| 5 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 6 | 0% | 0% |
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 77% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 23% | |
| 2 | 0.7% | 23% | |
| 3 | 22% | 22% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Polska 2050 (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.9% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0.1% | |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 4 | 0% | 0% |
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 100% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
.Nowoczesna (RE)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 33% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 67% | 67% | Median |
| 2 | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| 3 | 0% | 0% |
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.4% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)
For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 97% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 3% | 3% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Coalitions
Confidence Intervals
| Coalition | Last Result | Median | Majority? | 80% Confidence Interval | 90% Confidence Interval | 95% Confidence Interval | 99% Confidence Interval |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) | 0 | 5 | 0% | 5–6 | 5–7 | 4–7 | 4–8 |
| Ruch Narodowy (PfE) | 0 | 4 | 0% | 3–5 | 3–5 | 3–5 | 2–5 |
| Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 | 0–3 |
| Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) | 0 | 0 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0–1 |
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0% | 100% | |
| 3 | 0% | 100% | |
| 4 | 3% | 100% | |
| 5 | 51% | 97% | Median |
| 6 | 37% | 46% | |
| 7 | 8% | 9% | |
| 8 | 0.8% | 0.8% | |
| 9 | 0% | 0% |
Ruch Narodowy (PfE)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0% | 100% | Last Result |
| 1 | 0% | 100% | |
| 2 | 0.8% | 100% | |
| 3 | 26% | 99.2% | |
| 4 | 44% | 74% | Median |
| 5 | 30% | 30% | |
| 6 | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| 7 | 0% | 0% |
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 77% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0% | 23% | |
| 2 | 0.7% | 23% | |
| 3 | 22% | 22% | |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| 5 | 0% | 0% |
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)
| Number of Seats | Probability | Accumulated | Special Marks |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 99.4% | 100% | Last Result, Median |
| 1 | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| 2 | 0% | 0% |
Technical Information
Opinion Poll
- Polling firm: Opinia24
- Commissioner(s): —
- Fieldwork period: 1–3 September 2025
Calculations
- Sample size: 933
- Simulations done: 2,097,152
- Error estimate: 1.45%