Opinion Poll by OGB, 2–9 September 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 31.4% 29.6–33.3% 29.0–33.9% 28.6–34.4% 27.7–35.3%
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 30.8% 29.0–32.7% 28.5–33.3% 28.0–33.7% 27.1–34.7%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 9.8% 8.7–11.1% 8.4–11.5% 8.1–11.8% 7.6–12.5%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 7.2% 6.2–8.4% 6.0–8.7% 5.7–9.0% 5.3–9.6%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 6.5% 5.6–7.6% 5.3–7.9% 5.1–8.2% 4.7–8.8%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 4.7% 3.9–5.7% 3.7–6.0% 3.6–6.2% 3.2–6.7%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.6% 2.1–3.4% 1.9–3.6% 1.8–3.8% 1.6–4.2%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 2.2% 1.7–2.9% 1.6–3.1% 1.4–3.3% 1.2–3.7%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.7% 1.3–2.4% 1.2–2.5% 1.1–2.7% 0.9–3.1%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 1.7% 1.3–2.4% 1.2–2.5% 1.1–2.7% 0.9–3.1%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.7% 0.5–1.2% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 20 18–21 18–21 18–22 17–22
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 20 16–20 16–20 16–20 16–21
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 5 5–7 5–8 5–8 4–8
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 5 4–5 3–5 3–5 3–6
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 4 3–4 0–5 0–5 0–5
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–3
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.1% 100%  
17 1.4% 99.9%  
18 23% 98%  
19 12% 75%  
20 47% 63% Median
21 13% 16%  
22 3% 3%  
23 0.2% 0.3%  
24 0.1% 0.1%  
25 0% 0%  

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.1% 100%  
16 11% 99.9%  
17 6% 89%  
18 13% 83%  
19 15% 70%  
20 53% 55% Median
21 2% 2%  
22 0.1% 0.1%  
23 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 2% 100%  
5 72% 98% Median
6 8% 26%  
7 12% 19%  
8 6% 6%  
9 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 6% 100%  
4 44% 94%  
5 49% 50% Median
6 2% 2%  
7 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 5% 100% Last Result
1 0% 95%  
2 0.5% 95%  
3 41% 94%  
4 46% 53% Median
5 7% 7%  
6 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 81% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 19%  
2 1.3% 19%  
3 17% 17%  
4 0.4% 0.4%  
5 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 52% 100% Last Result, Median
1 48% 48%  
2 0.3% 0.3%  
3 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.4% 0.4%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.2% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.8% 0.8%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 5 0% 5–7 5–8 5–8 4–8
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 5 0% 4–5 3–5 3–5 3–6
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 2% 100%  
5 72% 98% Median
6 8% 26%  
7 12% 19%  
8 6% 6%  
9 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 6% 100%  
4 44% 94%  
5 49% 50% Median
6 2% 2%  
7 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.4% 0.4%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations