Opinion Poll by Social Changes for wPolsce24, 12–15 September 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 33.0% 31.1–34.9% 30.5–35.5% 30.1–36.0% 29.2–36.9%
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 26.9% 25.1–28.7% 24.6–29.3% 24.2–29.7% 23.4–30.7%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 6.8% 5.9–7.9% 5.6–8.3% 5.4–8.6% 5.0–9.1%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 6.8% 5.9–7.9% 5.6–8.3% 5.4–8.6% 5.0–9.1%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 5.9% 5.0–7.0% 4.8–7.3% 4.6–7.5% 4.2–8.1%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 5.7% 4.8–6.7% 4.6–7.0% 4.4–7.3% 4.0–7.8%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 4.6% 3.8–5.5% 3.6–5.8% 3.4–6.1% 3.1–6.6%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 4.4% 3.6–5.3% 3.4–5.6% 3.2–5.8% 2.9–6.3%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 2.2% 1.7–3.0% 1.6–3.2% 1.5–3.4% 1.3–3.7%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.5% 1.1–2.2% 1.0–2.3% 0.9–2.5% 0.8–2.8%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 19 17–21 17–21 17–22 17–22
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 17 15–18 15–18 15–19 15–20
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–5 3–5
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 4 3–4 3–4 0–5 0–5
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 3 3–4 2–4 2–4 2–5
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 3 0–4 0–4 0–4 0–4
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 2 2–3 2–3 2–3 1–4
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 0 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.1% 100%  
17 12% 99.9%  
18 18% 88%  
19 36% 70% Median
20 20% 34%  
21 11% 14%  
22 3% 3%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.2% 100%  
15 26% 99.8%  
16 18% 74%  
17 40% 56% Median
18 13% 16%  
19 3% 3%  
20 0.6% 0.6%  
21 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.2% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.8%  
2 0.1% 99.8%  
3 42% 99.7%  
4 54% 58% Median
5 4% 4%  
6 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 3% 100% Last Result
1 0% 97%  
2 0.1% 97%  
3 32% 97%  
4 62% 65% Median
5 3% 3%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 7% 100%  
3 63% 93% Median
4 29% 30%  
5 0.7% 0.7%  
6 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 16% 100% Last Result
1 0% 84%  
2 5% 84%  
3 52% 79% Median
4 26% 26%  
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 51% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 49%  
2 10% 49%  
3 37% 38%  
4 1.1% 1.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.7% 100%  
2 57% 99.3% Median
3 41% 43%  
4 1.1% 1.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 57% 100% Last Result, Median
1 43% 43%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.1% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.9% 0.9%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.5% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.5% 0.5%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 3 0% 3–4 2–4 2–4 2–5
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 2 0% 2–3 2–3 2–3 1–4
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–1

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 7% 100%  
3 63% 93% Median
4 29% 30%  
5 0.7% 0.7%  
6 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0.7% 100%  
2 57% 99.3% Median
3 41% 43%  
4 1.1% 1.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.1% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.9% 0.9%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations