Opinion Poll by United Surveys for WP.pl, 13–15 September 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 32.6% 30.7–34.6% 30.2–35.2% 29.7–35.7% 28.8–36.7%
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 31.2% 29.4–33.2% 28.8–33.8% 28.3–34.3% 27.5–35.3%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 8.5% 7.4–9.8% 7.1–10.2% 6.9–10.5% 6.4–11.1%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 7.2% 6.2–8.4% 6.0–8.8% 5.7–9.1% 5.3–9.7%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 6.2% 5.3–7.3% 5.0–7.6% 4.8–7.9% 4.4–8.5%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 4.8% 4.0–5.8% 3.8–6.1% 3.6–6.3% 3.2–6.9%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 4.0% 3.3–5.0% 3.1–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.6–6.0%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.7% 1.3–2.4% 1.1–2.6% 1.1–2.8% 0.9–3.1%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 1.3% 0.9–1.9% 0.8–2.1% 0.7–2.2% 0.6–2.6%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 1.1% 0.7–1.6% 0.7–1.8% 0.6–2.0% 0.5–2.3%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.1% 0.3–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.7%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 21 19–21 18–21 18–21 17–21
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 19 19–20 19–20 19–21 18–21
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 5 4–5 4–5 4–6 4–6
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 4 4–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–3
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.1% 100%  
17 0.7% 99.9%  
18 9% 99.2%  
19 5% 91%  
20 27% 85%  
21 58% 58% Median
22 0.2% 0.2%  
23 0% 0%  

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0.3% 100%  
18 0.9% 99.7%  
19 85% 98.8% Median
20 11% 14%  
21 2% 3%  
22 0.4% 0.4%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.3% 100%  
4 10% 99.7%  
5 85% 89% Median
6 4% 5%  
7 0.3% 0.3%  
8 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 6% 100%  
4 65% 94% Median
5 28% 28%  
6 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.3% 100%  
3 64% 99.7% Median
4 35% 36%  
5 0.5% 0.5%  
6 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 90% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 10%  
2 0.2% 10%  
3 9% 9%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.4%  
2 0% 0.4%  
3 0.3% 0.4%  
4 0% 0%  

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 31% 100% Last Result
1 69% 69% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 5 0% 4–5 4–5 4–6 4–6
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 0% 3–4 3–4 3–4 3–4
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.3% 100%  
4 10% 99.7%  
5 85% 89% Median
6 4% 5%  
7 0.3% 0.3%  
8 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.3% 100%  
3 64% 99.7% Median
4 35% 36%  
5 0.5% 0.5%  
6 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations