Opinion Poll by Instytut Badań Pollster for SE.pl, 27–28 September 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 32.9% 31.1–34.9% 30.6–35.4% 30.1–35.9% 29.3–36.8%
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 28.3% 26.5–30.1% 26.0–30.7% 25.6–31.1% 24.8–32.0%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 6.8% 5.9–7.9% 5.7–8.3% 5.4–8.5% 5.0–9.1%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 6.7% 5.8–7.8% 5.6–8.2% 5.3–8.4% 4.9–9.0%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 6.7% 5.8–7.8% 5.6–8.2% 5.3–8.4% 4.9–9.0%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 5.0% 4.2–6.0% 4.0–6.2% 3.8–6.5% 3.5–7.0%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 4.5% 3.7–5.4% 3.6–5.7% 3.4–5.9% 3.0–6.4%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 4.1% 3.4–5.0% 3.2–5.3% 3.0–5.5% 2.7–6.0%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.6% 1.2–2.2% 1.1–2.4% 1.0–2.5% 0.8–2.9%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 1.6% 1.2–2.2% 1.1–2.4% 1.0–2.5% 0.8–2.9%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.5%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.2% 0.3–1.3% 0.2–1.5%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 20 18–20 18–21 17–21 17–22
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 18 17–20 17–20 16–21 15–21
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 4 4–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 0–5
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–5 0–5
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 2–3 2–3 2–4 2–4
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–3
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–3
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0.1% 100%  
17 3% 99.9%  
18 8% 97%  
19 32% 89%  
20 49% 56% Median
21 6% 7%  
22 0.7% 0.8%  
23 0.1% 0.1%  
24 0% 0%  

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0.2% 100%  
15 0.5% 99.8%  
16 2% 99.2%  
17 28% 97%  
18 35% 69% Median
19 23% 34%  
20 7% 10%  
21 3% 3%  
22 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 10% 99.9%  
4 64% 90% Median
5 26% 26%  
6 0.3% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.6% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.4%  
2 0% 99.4%  
3 56% 99.4% Median
4 41% 43%  
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0.8% 100% Last Result
1 0% 99.2%  
2 0% 99.2%  
3 34% 99.2%  
4 60% 65% Median
5 5% 5%  
6 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 42% 100%  
3 54% 58% Median
4 4% 4%  
5 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 73% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 27%  
2 1.4% 27%  
3 26% 26%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 94% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 6%  
2 1.0% 6%  
3 5% 5%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 48% 100% Last Result
1 51% 52% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.4% 0.4%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 4 0% 4–5 3–5 3–5 3–5
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 0% 2–3 2–3 2–4 2–4
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–3
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.1% 100%  
3 10% 99.9%  
4 64% 90% Median
5 26% 26%  
6 0.3% 0.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 42% 100%  
3 54% 58% Median
4 4% 4%  
5 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 73% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 27%  
2 1.4% 27%  
3 26% 26%  
4 0.1% 0.1%  
5 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.6% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.4% 0.4%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations