Opinion Poll by Research Partner, 26–29 September 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 32.4% 30.6–34.3% 30.1–34.8% 29.7–35.3% 28.8–36.2%
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 27.2% 25.5–29.0% 25.0–29.5% 24.6–29.9% 23.8–30.8%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 7.4% 6.4–8.5% 6.2–8.8% 6.0–9.1% 5.5–9.7%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 7.4% 6.4–8.5% 6.2–8.8% 6.0–9.1% 5.5–9.7%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 6.3% 5.4–7.3% 5.2–7.6% 5.0–7.9% 4.6–8.4%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 5.4% 4.6–6.4% 4.4–6.7% 4.2–7.0% 3.9–7.5%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.6% 3.0–4.5% 2.8–4.7% 2.7–5.0% 2.4–5.4%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 3.1% 2.5–3.9% 2.3–4.1% 2.2–4.3% 2.0–4.7%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.5% 1.1–2.1% 1.0–2.3% 0.9–2.4% 0.8–2.7%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 1.2% 0.9–1.8% 0.8–1.9% 0.7–2.1% 0.6–2.4%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.2–1.5%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.6% 0.4–1.0% 0.3–1.1% 0.3–1.2% 0.2–1.5%
Bezpartyjni Samorządowcy (*) 0.0% 0.4% 0.2–0.7% 0.2–0.9% 0.1–1.0% 0.1–1.2%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 20 19–20 19–20 18–21 18–21
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 18 18–19 17–19 17–19 15–20
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 4 4 4–5 3–5 3–5
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 4 4–5 4–5 4–5 3–6
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 3 3–4 3–4 3–4 0–4
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 3 3 2–4 2–4
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0–3
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1
Bezpartyjni Samorządowcy (*) 0 0 0 0 0 0

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0% 100%  
16 0% 100%  
17 0.4% 100%  
18 2% 99.6%  
19 20% 97%  
20 74% 78% Median
21 3% 4%  
22 0.2% 0.3%  
23 0% 0%  

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.5% 100%  
16 0.9% 99.5%  
17 5% 98.6%  
18 76% 94% Median
19 17% 18%  
20 1.3% 1.4%  
21 0.1% 0.1%  
22 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 4% 100%  
4 91% 96% Median
5 5% 5%  
6 0.1% 0.1%  
7 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.6% 100%  
4 85% 99.4% Median
5 13% 14%  
6 0.6% 0.6%  
7 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 1.1% 100% Last Result
1 0% 98.9%  
2 0% 98.9%  
3 88% 98.9% Median
4 10% 10%  
5 0.3% 0.3%  
6 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 4% 100%  
3 92% 95% Median
4 4% 4%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 1.2%  
2 0% 1.2%  
3 1.2% 1.2%  
4 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0% 0.1%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 17% 100% Last Result
1 83% 83% Median
2 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.2% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.8% 0.8%  
2 0% 0%  

Bezpartyjni Samorządowcy (*)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Bezpartyjni Samorządowcy (*) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 4 0% 4–5 4–5 4–5 3–6
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 3 0% 3 3 2–4 2–4
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0–3
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.6% 100%  
4 85% 99.4% Median
5 13% 14%  
6 0.6% 0.6%  
7 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 4% 100%  
3 92% 95% Median
4 4% 4%  
5 0.2% 0.2%  
6 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 98.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 1.2%  
2 0% 1.2%  
3 1.2% 1.2%  
4 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.1% 0.1%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations