Opinion Poll by IBRiS for Onet, 8–9 October 2025

Voting Intentions | Seats | Coalitions | Technical Information

Voting Intentions

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Poll Result 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0.0% 29.4% 27.6–31.3% 27.1–31.8% 26.7–32.3% 25.9–33.2%
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0.0% 28.9% 27.2–30.8% 26.7–31.3% 26.2–31.8% 25.4–32.7%
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0.0% 8.6% 7.6–9.8% 7.3–10.2% 7.0–10.5% 6.6–11.1%
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0.0% 7.5% 6.6–8.7% 6.3–9.0% 6.1–9.3% 5.6–9.9%
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0.0% 6.5% 5.6–7.5% 5.3–7.9% 5.1–8.1% 4.7–8.7%
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0.0% 6.4% 5.5–7.5% 5.2–7.8% 5.0–8.0% 4.6–8.6%
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0.0% 4.9% 4.1–5.9% 3.9–6.2% 3.7–6.4% 3.4–6.9%
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0.0% 3.1% 2.5–3.9% 2.3–4.1% 2.2–4.3% 1.9–4.8%
Polska 2050 (RE) 0.0% 1.7% 1.3–2.4% 1.2–2.6% 1.1–2.7% 0.9–3.1%
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0.0% 1.6% 1.2–2.3% 1.1–2.5% 1.0–2.6% 0.9–3.0%
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.6%
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0.0% 0.7% 0.4–1.1% 0.4–1.3% 0.3–1.4% 0.2–1.6%

Note: The poll result column reflects the actual value used in the calculations. Published results may vary slightly, and in addition be rounded to fewer digits.

Seats

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Confidence Intervals

Party Last Result Median 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) 0 18 17–19 16–20 16–20 16–21
Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) 0 18 16–18 15–18 14–18 14–19
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 4 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
Nowa Lewica (S&D) 0 4 4–5 3–5 3–5 3–6
Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) 0 4 3–4 3–4 3–4 0–5
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 4 3–5 3–5 3–5 2–5
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) 0 0 0–3 0–3 0–3 0–4
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Polska 2050 (RE) 0 0 0 0 0 0
.Nowoczesna (RE) 0 1 0–1 0–1 0–1 0–1
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) 0 0 0 0 0 0–1

Platforma Obywatelska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Platforma Obywatelska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 0% 100%  
15 0.2% 100%  
16 8% 99.8%  
17 42% 92%  
18 25% 50% Median
19 17% 25%  
20 6% 8%  
21 1.3% 2%  
22 0% 0.4%  
23 0.3% 0.3%  
24 0% 0%  

Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Zjednoczona Prawica (ECR) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0% 100%  
4 0% 100%  
5 0% 100%  
6 0% 100%  
7 0% 100%  
8 0% 100%  
9 0% 100%  
10 0% 100%  
11 0% 100%  
12 0% 100%  
13 0% 100%  
14 5% 100%  
15 4% 95%  
16 14% 91%  
17 27% 77%  
18 48% 50% Median
19 2% 2%  
20 0.5% 0.5%  
21 0% 0%  

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.2% 100%  
4 54% 99.8% Median
5 26% 46%  
6 20% 20%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Nowa Lewica (S&D)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Nowa Lewica (S&D) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 6% 100%  
4 66% 94% Median
5 27% 28%  
6 1.3% 1.3%  
7 0% 0%  

Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (NI) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 2% 100% Last Result
1 0% 98%  
2 0.1% 98%  
3 43% 98%  
4 53% 55% Median
5 2% 2%  
6 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Ruch Narodowy (PfE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.5% 100%  
3 38% 99.5%  
4 34% 61% Median
5 27% 27%  
6 0% 0%  

Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 62% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 38%  
2 0.2% 38%  
3 37% 38%  
4 0.9% 0.9%  
5 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Polska 2050 (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Polska 2050 (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 100% 100% Last Result, Median

.Nowoczesna (RE)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the .Nowoczesna (RE) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 39% 100% Last Result
1 61% 61% Median
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Inicjatywa Polska (EPP)

For a full overview of the results for this party, see the Inicjatywa Polska (EPP) page.

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.4% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.6% 0.6%  
2 0% 0%  

Coalitions

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Confidence Intervals

Coalition Last Result Median Majority? 80% Confidence Interval 90% Confidence Interval 95% Confidence Interval 99% Confidence Interval
Nowa Nadzieja (ESN) 0 4 0% 4–6 4–6 4–6 4–6
Ruch Narodowy (PfE) 0 4 0% 3–5 3–5 3–5 2–5
Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0
Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA) 0 0 0% 0 0 0 0

Nowa Nadzieja (ESN)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0% 100%  
3 0.2% 100%  
4 54% 99.8% Median
5 26% 46%  
6 20% 20%  
7 0.1% 0.1%  
8 0% 0%  

Ruch Narodowy (PfE)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 0% 100% Last Result
1 0% 100%  
2 0.5% 100%  
3 38% 99.5%  
4 34% 61% Median
5 27% 27%  
6 0% 0%  

Lewica Razem (GUE/NGL)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.9% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0% 0.1%  
2 0.1% 0.1%  
3 0.1% 0.1%  
4 0% 0%  

Partia Zieloni (Greens/EFA)

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Number of Seats Probability Accumulated Special Marks
0 99.8% 100% Last Result, Median
1 0.2% 0.2%  
2 0% 0%  

Technical Information

Opinion Poll

Calculations